When will we run out of oil?

Question

Cmon, we all know its gonna happen..I want your predictions on what year your figure on. My bet is placed on 2019.

Answer 1

Definetly 2019, most fields put on stream now will still be producing by that time.

You need to make the difference of "when will we run out of oil" and "when is the oil going to be too expensive for us to afford burning it in our Hummer H3"... These are 2 different issues.

First question is probably in the next 100 years if not more if we use all the oil shales and tar sands, but oil production will be gradually declining around 2020 when we will reach the peak oil. There is always small fields that are non-economics and will become interesting with increasing oil prices. It is already happening.

When will the oil be too expensive ? This is extremely difficult to forecast. 10 years ago, people were previously saying that a 100 $ barrels will be the limit but it does not seem to be.

I even remember a book from the 90's from a famous US economist and guru who was stating that there will not be any economic growth without a cheap barrels and that the price of oil could stabilize as low as 7-9 $ per barrels. We professionals were laughing but economists and finance people found it plausible...

Answer 2

Not in your lifetime.  There is more oil than we need for 100 years. Even more if we learn to convert coal to oil economically using nuclear power.

The current price spikes are based on pure speculation. Just like the 70's oil shocks. Manipulation by the oil companies and supply country's works for 5-10 years and then prices colapse. After the 70's scare, oil prices plunged for 20 years.

Astrobuf

Answer 3

it's not very predictable but we all know its soon n there r actually ways that cars can run n its not gasoline however it will drastically lower the money the government gets. they dont want this so its been kept secret until it completely runs out