When will world oil run-out, please cite a respectable source?

Question

When will world oil run-out, please cite a respectable source?

Answer 1

We will NEVER completely run out of oil. Its just a function of economics. Assuming a constant rate of consumption and no environmental problem (such as greenhouse gases) or some other factor that affects the demand, the price of oil will have to increase as the supply diminishes. That's basic economics - supply and demand determine the price. As the price goes up, energy companies will be able to recover oil from deeper reserves, smaller reserves, more remote locations, and lower grades, as well as start providing new sources at a profit. Not only that, oil companies will be motivated to carry out exploration to look for new oil and natural gas deposits and alternative energy supplies as the price goes up.

At some point the price of oil could get so high that there will no longer be any economically recoverable oil. But its more likely that the price of oil gets so high that nobody will buy it anymore, so we go back to the supply and demand fundamentals, and the price goes down. That has the direct consequence of encouraging better use of our conventional energy sources and increasing the use of alternative fuels and energy sources.

So it all comes down to affordability. People in many third world countries can't afford oil today, but in North America and Europe we are complaining but can still afford it.

There's no question we need to reduce our energy and resource demand and start making better use of our existing resources, but we will not run out of oil.

Answer 2

In between 30 - 40 years