Where's the Problem with Global Warming?

Question

I look these charts believers post, and truthfully I can't see what all the fuss is about. Clearly any fear over global warming is overblown.

http://environmentaldefenseblogs.org/climate411/2008/02/27/cold_january/

Over the 160 years plotted:

about 130 years were about 0.5 deg below average

about 30 years are 0.5 deg above average.

1) Isn't +/- 0.5 deg within a normal range?

2) If 30 years above average averages out with 30 years below average, this leaves about 100 years that the temperatures were below average.

If there were 100 years of below average temps, then there must have been 100 years above average to obtain that average, right?

If there were once 100 years above average, why are we concerned with a short 30 years that are just slightly above average, and within the normal temperature variations?

Since Dana posted this graph, it must be correct and fits the views of a standard believer.

Answer 1

yes .5 deg within a normal range for months. it would be far higher if you plotted days. now if you take a yearly average you can remove even more of this variability but events such as al Narnia and la neno will still have a major effect on the results. so when looking at climate 5 or 10 year averages are normally taken because of the much smaller range which allows for better comparison.

yes but if you average any normal distribution you get half higher and half lower then the average, nothing suprising. this graph is however not centred on zero it is of temps compared to the "long-term average of temperatures between 1961 and 1990". which was higher then the current temps.

my answer to yout second point seems to have got side tracked so what im saying is.

basicly it is graphing temps from 1850 to 2008 as compared to the average from 1961 and 1990. so it is not centered on zero.

Answer 2

I think the point is that we are watching a rise over recent years which cannot be explained by the sun increasing in output, volcanoes or any other factor other than the increase in CO2 levels.  It is not a case of what is the normal range but what is causing the deviation, in this case it is CO2 levels which are going to get higher and cause significant problems which need to be minimised by us all taking action on the growth of our carbon footprint and if possible reducing it.

Answer 3

I guess you either did not understand the graph or you did not read the text. This is a cut and paste for you from your own link.

As you can see from the graph, temperatures are trending upward over time in a zigzag pattern, not unlike the stock market. A shallow dip is followed by an even greater rise. Short-term dips should not be mistaken for long-term trends - in the stock market, or in climate!

January 2008 (circled in red) is cooler than other months in the past decade, but still significantly warmer than previous decades. Global warming isn’t likely to have stopped in January 2008 any more than it stopped in March 1976, December 1984, November 1992, or February 1994. These are all short-term dips in a long-term trend.

Global warming is a process that occurs over decades. It can’t be proven or disproven by a single month’s temperature.

Answer 4

global warming = bad

global cooling = good

Answer 5

threat my kids and grand kids with death is the only thing keeping global warming alive and greed

Answer 6

haven't you heard? global warming's been cancelled. it's been replaced by 'climate change'. that way the numbskulls are right no matter what happens. actually, we're in a period of global cooling, with some of the coldest temps ever being recorded

Answer 7

The earth's temperature has gone through many cycles.  The latest warming trend happened around the 10th and 11th century.  This was when you could actually have agricultural production in Greenland.  Global warming would mean greater agricultural production in Canada and Siberia as well.

You cannot blame humans for all the climate change.  This model does not consider sunspot activity, the El Nino phenomenon, volcanic activity, etc.  Of these, the activity of the sun is probably the biggest contributing factor to climate change.

Global warming is not without some noted detractors.   In fact, the founder of the Weather Channel is one of these scientists.  In fact, I heard he was considering suing Al Gore for all the nonsense he has been preaching.

Answer 8

As you have said so many times before.It's the random variances that distort the numbers game.We know that if you wanted to, it would actually be possible to show a net loss during certain time constraints.Not only can this be done with temps but also with CO2 levels.Yearly averages won't work,so the minimum would be 5 year plots.Cherry picking these plots seem to be a favorite pass time for some alarmist. I've seen the margin of error higher then the coefficients.So I've been lead to believe, it's nothing more then pattern matching.

Answer 9

yeah

Answer 10

rizinoutlaw: northern ice always grows in winter (it's winter) the problem is how much it melts again in summer, the link shows difference between summer 1990 and 2007

Answer 11

If you can't grasp the concept of a simple graph with a mean perhaps a math/statistics tutor, if all else fails in it simplest form the blue dots on the left low, blue dots on the right high.

Although you should get an award for using "average" the most times in a question.

It amazes me how you get so many chosen answers as the ones I have seen are mostly dribble unless you use the old multiple id trick and both ask the question and give your self the answer.

Answer 12

don't worry, global warming won't kill you, only your children's children or something like that

Answer 13

You seriously don't understand what that graph is showing, Dr. J? Let me spell it out for you. That isn't a graph of average temperatures. It's a graph of temperature "anomalies." The 0 point on the y-axis isn't the "average temperature" for the time period, it's the arbitrarily chosen baseline for the time series. So temperature anomalies below 0 aren't below average, they're just lower than the average for the base period (which is entirely arbitrary).

Geez.

Answer 14

ive never disagreed with something u said before dr jello.. not because u say AGW is a myth, what u say is true :o

Answer 15

Although the temperature changes seem small, they can have quite large implications.  Our planet's average temperature has risen .8 degrees.  I've seen a program, "Six Degrees Could Change the World," and it put everything into perspective for me.  In 2003 (I believe is was that year), there was a heat wave and some interesting things happened in Europe.  There were higher than average levels of carbon dioxide.  Truth is, it was so hot that the trees were starting to release it instead of oxygen.  But heat is not the only thing that occurs due to global warming.  It also causes massive cooler temperatures as well.  While we have record low temperatures, we also have record high ones.

Answer 16

if global warming is happening why is the Northern Ice caps shrinking, and the southern Ice caps expanding?  Oh wait, the northern ice caps are starting to grow too

Answer 17

What global warming?  It's very cold in MN this week.  Surprised the forecasters too, they didn't think it would be -20 in MN this morning.

This winter?  Coldest in 10 years.  Past 5 winters?  4 of them have been colder than the 100 year average.  Past 10 winters?  8 of them have been colder than the 100 year average.

Global Warming is a joke here in MN.  Even the Star Tribune (largest newspaper in MN) had a poll and 73% of those polled didn't believe in GW/AGW.

Answer 18

d**n it! Get with the program here. How are governments and Al Gore supposed to soak all the people by taxing them if you keep posting this crazy graphs. Just watch the "The  Inconvenient Truth" and repeat after me, "Al Gore is a genius. Global Warming will kill us all in ten yeas. We are approaching the point of no return." Say this 100 times. While you are doing that, I am going to enjoy the glorious weather and go to the beach.

Answer 19

It's a big problem.  Our modern society, with intensive agriculture and massive coastal development is very sensitive to changes in temperature.

It won't be a Hollywood movie style disaster. Gradually coastal areas will flood and agriculture will be damaged. But it will be very bad. Rich countries will cope, but it will take huge amounts of money. In poor countries many people will die of starvation, but not all of them.

We're no longer nomads, who can fold their tents and move.

Answer 20

The problem is that the temperatures continue to grow. Of course there isn't TOO much of a difference between now and 130 years ago... They didn't have hummers and massive power plants emitting thousands and millions of tons of toxic fossil fuels into the atmosphere. The fact is that we have all of these things now and they aren't being controlled like they should be.

Answer 21

“But heat is not the only thing that occurs due to global warming. It also causes massive cooler temperatures as well.”

Hey insomnia, I saw that movie, too.  Does that count as “climate science” now?  

The “inconvenient truth” here is that CO2 induced global warming warms the winters more than the summers and the nights more than the days.  It reduces the temperature differences in the atmosphere which reduces the severity of storms, but increases humidity to increase rainfall – more frequent but gentler rains.

Answer 22

from 1930 to 1950 temps were above average but where's the co2 ? practically non existent from 1950 to the mid 80's Co2 way up but coolest temps ever and still below the temps in the 30's to 50's,

Big NY conference on " Climate Change and the myth of Global Warming  " but of course since it blows all of the global warming theories to pot , no media. For the Global Warming doom sayers that believe that mankind is comming to and end lik e the one above me there is medication I hear that can cure that