Where did global cooling go?

Question

From January to February 2008, the planet warmed 0.14°C.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

At that rate, the planet will warm 1.5°C by the end of the year! What happened to that global cooling everyone was talking about?!

Okay all sarcasm aside, February was still a pretty cool month because the La Nina cycle continues.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei_index.html

But the point is that short-term variations don't tell you anything about the long-term climate. Just like one cool month didn't mean global cooling was starting or that global warming had been "wiped out", the 0.14°C warming from January to February doesn't mean global warming has suddenly accelerated. It means La Nina is beginning to moderate.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080303_ColdWeather.pdf

Can we all agree that the "global cooling" hysteria of last month was unfounded?

Answer 1

I can agree that you cannot decide that global warming is over by one month of cooling.  But I will say that it is nice to see a good winter with lots of snow.  The snow pack in the rockies that feeds the Rio Grande is %165 above average along with a few other rivers that are snow fed like the Arkansas river.  This was a great winter and anyone who says that this winter stalled or got rid of global warming is just pissing into the wind, the temps will rise again, but to what magnitude well we don't know.  It gets old hearing these questions of it snowed in back yard where is global warming and also tired of hearing questions.. we had a heat wave, d**n global warming...  Frankly the whole controversy is getting old, I will patiently wait to see what happens, b/c in all REALITY NOBODY KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN!!!

Answer 2

Just like your warming hysteria, it was/is unfounded. The globe is warming and has been for hundreds and hundreds of years. The graphics of temperature over the last earths history shows many yearly and multi year large variations, with a slow overall trend of about 1 degree C every 100 years. This cycle has repeated itself many times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitc...

Answer 3

LOL.  Sadly, your 2-point projection is as good as some of the "science" people link to around here.

The following quote from the NCAR sums up what people need to acknowledge:

"Climate is weather, averaged over time—usually a minimum of 30 years."

If this one simple thing were realized, we could eliminate 50% of the noise on this forum and more easily detect the actual signal (i.e. real discussions on real issues relevant to global warming).

As for the La Nina issue, I see that the current one is now ranked #4 for the Jan/Feb season.

Answer 4

it's on it's way

Answer 5

What hysteria?  Technically, the planet has been cooling over the last 10 years.  The only hysteria is from the wackos that insist global WARMING is going to destroy us.

To add to Jim z's post.  Isn't it funny how the warming alarmists never concede that their arguments are flawed and there is a boatload of evidence to discredit almost anything they say?  All they do is constantly tell you that whatever data someone who contradicts them uses isn't enough.  Or that they continuously alter their argument to make their point.  For example, now the nutcases are abandoning the term "global warming" and using "climate change" because the planet has ceased warming for 10 years.  They just keep making their argument broader and broader until anything they say will support their flimsy stance.

Dana, did you really just cite a source from Wordpress?  That's a blog site, genius.  That's about as credible as citing Wikipedia.

Answer 6

"The ENSO phenomenon (standing for El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is one of the main sources of interannual, or year-to-year, variation in weather and climate around the world."

http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/climat...

A month or two of weather is irrelevant.

If we were to discuss weather vs. what is "normal," it was very odd that 2007 ended up second warmest year globally in spite of the cooling La Nina weather pattern.  The La Nina influence continues so this year should also be cooler then normal, but given last year's surprisingly warm outcome, the 2008 results could be surprisingly warm as well.

Jello -

I don't follow your math... In one year the temperature dropped 0.37 degrees, so less than one year from now the total temperature drop will be 1.6 degrees (not some fraction of another .37)?  Anyway, math aside, your reasoning also ignores the most recent data showing temp rise from last month, as well as the temperature rises measured globally in the 5, 30 and 120+ year timeframes.

Answer 7

Now you've done it Dana.  Thirty years from now they'll be posting how "THEY predicted Global Cooling in aught-eight"

Answer 8

"But the point is that short-term variations don't tell you anything about the long-term climate. " yet it is constantly used by alarmist.

From what I gather by a couple posts, it won't matter to the alarmist if it cools for a couple decades.  This won't disprove their theory at all.  We must watch the climate over 30 years to be sure.  I therefore propose to watch the global climate for 30 years and revisit the issue then prior to taking drastic steps that will harm our way of life.

Answer 9

You're looking at the statistics incorrectly.

Compared to the same time last year, the temperature dropped 0.37 degrees.

At this rate the temperatures at the end of the year will be 1.6 below last years temperatures.

This will wipe out all gains, and put us lower than the average temperatures for the first time in 30 years.

http://environmentaldefenseblogs.org/cli...

This is probably the start of a new ice age!  Global warming is dead!

Answer 10

What's short term?  I maintain that the last 150 years is short term wrt climate change and we have only varied a degree anyway.

"Can we all agree that the "global cooling" hysteria of last month was unfounded?"

Probably

A better question:  Can we all agree that the "global warming" hysteria of the last two decades was unfounded?"

Answer 11

I know this that the records of the past show that within a very short time of a global warming we go into an ice age...which is where I think we are headed now.  Volcanoes and normal gases that the earth gives off have in the past done more damage than what humans could.  Look at what asteroids have done..

I DO think we are in for a change, but it is the normal rhythm of the cycle of earth.

Answer 12

Basing climate change on months is like having a 5m race in the olympics.

The theory of global cooling was never really well supported anyway, and now there is little scientific debate surrounding global warming.

Answer 13

Im with jello on this one, you arent looking at the statistics correctly.  The temperature anomoly is only .016*C above normal, which means no one can say "the world has warmed by .6*C" right now.

Something I dont like about the GISS website, their anomoly shows a lot of areas of "no data", is it possible this could skew things?  And the large red area in the northern part of russia, I honestly dont believe they were that far above average temps..  After observing conditions for Yakutsk, russia every now and then through-out the winter, it just doesnt seem accurate.  The temps were constantly like -40*F almost every time I checked, and that town is in the middle of the area labeled as highly effected.  Is it supposed to be -50*F in the winter instead?

Global sea ice anomoly is +.45 million square miles.  In the antarctic, there is almost 1 million square miles of ice that wasnt there this time last year, and winter is just beginning down there.

Answer 14

Well I will agree the "global warming" hysteria is unfounded.

Answer 15

All of the hysteria is unfounded - that's the point.

Answer 16

your right, 1 years deviation or 1 seasons deviation means nothing in a long term trend.

so if we get the usual 5 to 10 days of 100 degree days this summer ,no one will claim its evidence of global warming?

hide & watch!

Answer 17

All of this 'global cooling' went to canada.