Where would india be after 5 years under the present circumstances ?

Question

Lets have a debate on this... FOR AND AGAINST

Answer 1

At about 8+ % annual growth, the economy will be 47% more than what it is today.

At an annual growth rate of 1.46%, the present population of 1.11357 billion will be 1.197 billion (addition of 83.7 million). the other big country China's growth as usual is not available. But if we go by Taiwan (0.36%) as indicator, China's present population of 1.3251 will be 1.34912 (an addition of a mere 24million). At these rates (assumed 0.36% for China& 1.46% for India), India will equal China in population after 14 years (2022). The tie-up population will be 1.394 billion.

Economy comparison of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) is pertinent here:

Given here are Economy for each (starting with ranking) in $ billion present & 5-year after; with annual percentage growth rate wedged in brackets. [IMF estimates, 2008]

4. China   3258.27 <9.7> 5176.3

10.Brazil   1313.59 <5.1> 1384

11.Russia 1289.58 <7.1> 1817.17

12.India     1098.95 <8>    1614.71.

For India, China is unreachable at 9.7% rate, beyond comp ere. After China there are 7countries with rates (annual, GDP) less than India but stronger economies and India will not equal and supersede them in next 5 years. Russia with 7.1%  just above India is also a tough proposition to equal. Russia's growth is poised to increase in coming years. Here is another table that gives all these 7 countries, in how many years India with higher rate will equal and at what what GDP (present valuation) both can have. Thier present GDP in$billion,<rate>, number of years to equal and GDP then (India' equalling that country's) will reveal the hard road ahead, for India to cover

5.  UK....... 2772.57 <2.9> 19.13 yrs  4959.355

6. France 2560,255 <1.8> 14.3 yrs....3007.066

7. Italy.......2104.66   <1.9> 11.176yrs 2597.41

8. Spain...1438.959  <3.8> 6.8yrs.......1854.075

9. Canada 1432.14  <2.7> 5,263yrs...1647.7

10.Brazil.....1313,59  <5.1> 2.5 yrs.......1334.5

11.Russia...1289.582<7.1>19.22 yrs...4185

For BRIC, Oil price rise is a big worry. A big producer & nett exporter, Russia will see its GDP growing faster. Brazil will boost its Ethanol production and by blending it with imported oil can offset damage to an extent. Though, a producer China is a nett importer and will suffer in India's company.

India's modest gas resources should be handy. Energy security eludes her in short term till nuclear energy comes on stream. In medium term she should be rescued by indigenous Thorium-based fast breeder reactor route of nuclear cycle. It will be catastrophic if her nuclear scientists let her down. As perennial solution she should seek to tap Central Eurasian Petroleum & Gas resources. The key to that (Caspian Sea as node) is Iran, a leading producer herself. She should be encouraged to build north-south, thousand-mile twin pipelines (for oil & gas separately) along her eastern desert margins with Indian money and expertise. It should connect Ashgabad of Turkmenistan and Caspian SE shore to Chah Bahar. This port is only 600 nautical miles from Kathiawad shore(Gulf of Cutch) of Port Okha/Dwaraka. Chah Bahar on Gulf of Oman, being open to ocean, free from and far from straits of Hormuz a million-ton tanker can operate at 13.5 knots to cover in 2 days.

Next is food security that is going down day after day due to neglect of agriculture. Agriculture in principle can never be self-sustaining. With annual growth rate of between 4 to 5%, it is the weakest link. In India agriculture has become not lucrative particularly with regard to food. The really weak point in this weakest link is the precarious position that an average farmer enjoys. Efforts are on to provide financial cushion to him. Institutional financial doles of 2/3 trillion rupees is a one time measure in the form, but unsustainable on continuous basis. Suitable dependable crop insurance is still far off. The only thing is futures trading that is actually deleterious. In India food production should never slacken and diversion of croplands for food should be never be diverted to for commercial crops. In present situation food situation is bad and India will import huge amounts of edible oil. Both the oils (petroleum & edible) will hog lion's share of import bill. Next single agriculture item as commodity needing to be imported is 'pulses'.Vegetables and fruits are produced adequately but their perishing rate is high in a tropical country. Infrastructure for food preservation is still not in place. Marine Fisheries is picking up, but we are from making any dent, and deep sea fishing on factory ships is still beyond our shores. Inland fisheries and aquaculture (fish ponds) will receive a setback simply because no land is available in next 5 years in which time India will be importing basic foods like coarse grains (wheat, rice) and oils as well as 'pulses' only to account for the long neglect of agriculture in spite of all-round effort.

Manufacture will grow routinely but not spectacularly. Mining which was never in the lime-light will shed that image. India has realised that the whole world wants its high-grade Iron, much of which has already been exported. Need for conserving it looms large. International steel-makers though willing to invest in India are half-hearted in putting up plants to  enable value addition to ores. Other Iron ore exporters Brazil, Australia, Mauritania, Algeria are aggressively exporting. Ukraine with the largest density of ore for any country has to depend on Russian gas that has become three times costly. India will export Iron ore, import massive amounts of coal (coking, metallurgical coal from Australia and the lower coals from Africa & indonesia). She is rearing to go in a big way for mining in Africa, but she will be upstaged by many others, notably China. India's petroleum drilling in international waters is the only silver lining in this scenario. Domestic manufacture will keep pace only to meet home demand that is itself huge. Except in a small scale, export of Indian manufactures will not be notable. Basic goods like cement & steel will be imported. Technological lag in things like machine tools will necessitate imports to meet domestic demand, with manufacturing languishing for want of latest technology. Unless this is modernised there is no scope for massive export effort.There are but flashes (in the pan?) as West would take advantage of the adequately developed but cheaper manufacturing base to produce here for export to their countries. There will be a 'car boom' on this account, not withsatnding the progress towards hybrid & Hydrogen fuel cell technology driven cars. There will be modest Defence exports but huge high-cost latest technological weapons and platforms (Aircraft & ships).

The only very bright feature is going to be ITES jobs flowing into the country irrespective of the despondence of the West.

Though stiff competition can be expected from unlikely directions like Ireland, Philippines, Russia there is no threat to India's IT & ITES. It is split into 2 main categories - Financial & accounting services (mostly Chennai based) and for Communications (Bengaluru & Gurgaon based). The exodus of Indian software professionals will continue the next 5 years. USA will continue to be the strong magnet, with Germany and Russia wanting them, too solicitously. This will be the biggest chunk of foreign exchange earnings that will go to build up expected $360 billion reserves. Though gulf (menial) jobs

will come down, that part of FE earnings will sustain. Ship building that was priced out of the West and getting priced out of Japan & South Korea will flow to India as China cannot meet global demand. Much more shipbuilding will be there than before, in these 5 years. India will emerge as a leading shipbuilder/designer, mainly because availability of cheap labour and infrastructure .

The PPP advantage will whittle down in the next 5 years as globalisation will make food costly at home and there will be pressure on rupee that will slide to Rs.39/$ but rupee will remain cheap compared to Euro. What this means is exports to USA will sustain (including ethnic products like cashew, sea-food for Indian diaspora) but will face stiff entry problems in Euro markets in spite of cheap rupee. In fact, Europeans don't need any Indian products. They need more from Africa (Minerals, Cocoa).

India may chalk up a better figure in global trade , yet will remain a market catering to home. The next 5 year will be India's consolidation phase and no attack on global market can be foreseen, as she lacks even now a product that the world needs except a cheap, intelligent and mobile labour who can sustain themselves at subsistence levels that is their main strength.

Answer 2

it would stii be in south east asia.