Which election projections/polls are the most accurate?

Question

I understand nothing is for certain when it comes to polling, but I would like to know which website/news station is the most accurate. I get results from Obama - 290/McCain - 222 to Obama - 210/McCain - 250. Please give me a website or some other reference, but don't just type in the first thing you see in Google/Yahoo unless you have some credible data to back up its past results and accuracy.

Thanks and have a Happy Election Season (If that's humanly possible!)

Answer 1

Fox News & MSNBC.

Oh wait...

I forgot I was in reality.

Answer 2

When MSNBC's Chuck Todd does his analysis, he is usually on the money.

Answer 3

All polls contain a margin of error. The larger the number of respondents the lower the margin of error.

RCP offers a summary of all reputable polls in the field, in effect one larger poll made up of all the small ones. Hence this lowers the margin of error further

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Answer 4

The poll of polls

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/e...

Obama 243 McCain 189

Answer 5

I usually go with Rasmussen - they tend to use targetted samples specifically chosen from likely voters.  They also tend to be correct pretty often.