Which horse has the best chance of winning?
On Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 the Cheltenham festival begins. One thing is certain, if we look at the stats, the Irish are running the game. But the question on everybody’s mind is which horse has the best chance of winning each race. Starting with the Champion Hurdle and working our way through to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, let’s investigate and find out.
As far as the Champion Hurdle is concerned Binocular is the sure bet with Celestial Halo coming in at number 2 and Go Native a close number 3.
With 3/1 odds Binocular is coming in hot. Owned by JP McManus he was runner up in last season’s Supreme Novice’s Hurdle with Tony McCoy as his rider. Binocular just won the Boylesports International Hurdle on Saturday and if his nickname, the Dominator is any indication of his skills, he should have no problems finishing in first place at this race. McCoy, an experienced rider not easily swayed or impressed is quoted as saying: “You can’t teach a horse to do what he can do.” This horse is quick, quick in the air, quick on the ground, he sweeps across lines with a clarity years ahead of his experience. He has truly earned himself the nickname, Dominator.
As far as Wednesday’s Queen Mother Champion Chase is concerned, Go Native is the one to beat. This Irish bred horse is one of the best home-trained two mile hurdlers around. With his convincing reappearance in the grade 2 elite hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday all his competitors are keeping their eyes open for this one. It is a well known fact that the Irish dominate in the Supreme Novices Chase, and without wanting to rely on histrionics as evidence, I’d say Go Native is where the smart money is.
On the other hand, Master Minded is no fool. They say he’s in a class of his own. Minded finished 3rd in the Connaught Chase but his last race was won by 13 lengths, which is no small feat. As for the lower ranked Twist Magic, he’s been blowing the competition away in recent times most notably for a big win at the Tingle Creek at Sandown earlier this season, and then at Ascot in the Victor Chandler Chase in January.
As for Thursday’s World Hurdle, Big Bucks is the one to be watching out for. Trained by Paul Nicholls who knows the game like no other Big Bucks was a big winner at Ladbrokes World Hurdle in 2009.
All of this is fine information, but what truly matters is the Cheltenham Gold Cup coming up this Friday. Even though two specific horses have been getting a lot of media attention lately, Kauto Star and Denman, they are both very different horses with very different styles trained by the same man and running for the same stables. Kauto Star’s got the unequivocal class, style and predicted by most pundits to take this one home. Denman’s rough and bullocking approach being, for many, far too inconsistent to go for the win. This 4 day fixture is truly building to a crescendo that will explode out of the fences and onto our front pages for the weekend edition papers. These are two of the best horses in the modern era. It should be noted that Denman is returning from a career threatening heart ailment and that until very recently it was thought that he might not compete at all. Fears were alleviated when he returned earlier this season and trounced the competition to win the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, perhaps this comeback kid is poised to repeat his 2008 feat, destroying his stable brother and finding gold.
No matter where your money is, this could be one of the greatest racing events in horse jump racing history, so stay tuned, this Friday history is being made.
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