Which is more useful in predicting decadal climate change: the Atlantic Ocean or the Pacific?

Question

And what variables could throw off a 10-year prediction?

NewScientist explores the topic in the August 16-22 issue.

Answer 1

The Pacific, there is absolutely no question. The El-Nino and La-Nina phenomena can be directly tied to changes in global weather patterns that have caused billions in infrastructure damage, crop loss and various other burdens on global civilization. There are longer term modulations of the Pacific sea surface temperature that can explain everything from global warming, global cooling and harvest rates for various species of marine organisms.

Answer 2

interesting question.

worthy of exploration.

on one hand, you have the gulf stream, which can have a hand in an ice age.

and there's recent evidence that there is more variability to the gulf stream than had been thought.

on the other hand, you have El Nino / La Nina, which have demonstrated world wide effects.

And why is the Indian ocean not a concern?

it seems to be the cause behind shifting Monsoons, that are responsible drought and the refugees in Darfur.

clearly in Europe and the eastern US, the Atlantic would seem more important.

however, i think that if there is sufficient heating in the pacific to change the periods of El Nino / La Nina, that would be far more significant than any expected Atlantic change, baring a complete breakdown in the gulf stream.

Answer 3

Since the Pacific is so much bigger and because La Nina and El Ninyo are so important, I would go with the Pacific.  These two phenomena are probably the most important factors as well when you look at small time intervals such as decades.

Answer 4

Not the IPCC anyway, they predicted climate would rise by 0.2 degrees per decade in the short term.  

Answer 5

altantic

Answer 6

I would think the Pacific, mainly because it's so much larger than the Atlantic.  

Answer 7

I'll go with the Atlantic, because of the North Atlantic Current.

Variables that could throw off a 10 year prediction:

1. Volcanic eruptions.

2. A change in Earth's magnetic field.

3. Solar flux variations.

4. Dust Storms.

5. A meteor strike.

6. A change in Earth's albedo.

7. Forest fires.

8. Methane geysers.

9. Massive plankton blooms.

10. Cosmic explosion of a neutron star.

11. Solar flares.

Answer 8

If you needed material for a scary movie, or something to make the kids behave. Then the Atlantic would be the one. Simply said the Thermohaline circulation(THC) effects just about all the oceans. Rainfall,ice sheets, glaciers, flooding, and darn near anything having to do with fresh water. It influences the salinity and density along with temps. But I already saw the movie and my kids are well behaved (gone). In 2005 a high probability factor of 70% was imposed for the Gulf Stream cessation. I didn't provided the link because it reminded me of being in Vegas.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/thc