Which starting RB is your sleeper in this year's draft?

Question

Here are the requirements: the RB must currently be a starter and you expect him to accumulate more than 400 yards or 2X TDs over his 2007 totals.

I've heard all about Matt Forte and the other rookies. I'm interested in offensive line improvements, QB changes, new offensive coordinators, injury updates -- anything you think will result in a BIG BOUNCE for the starting RB.

Standard format league: 6 pts TD.

Answer 1

Julias jones! hes with a team now where he is not having to split carries. He is a huge sleeper!

Answer 2

Julius Jones should see improvements becoming a pure starter for the Seahawks. Their line is not what it was when Hutchinson was there though.

Another "sleeper" could be Jamal Lewis. While his number jumped from 2006 to 2007 due the Browns improved line. They could jump a bit more or maintain that performance with the addition of Donte Stallworth to stretch the defense.

Edgerin James's numbers could jump with the Arizona Cardinals simply improving overall and their line gelling. It will be year 2 under their coach which should also improve game planning and play calling.

Most of the other "sleeper" candidates are as you note rookies and first year starters.

Answer 3

My boy Thomas Jones.  The Jets have signifigantly improved the offensive line so he will for sure get more yards and def. more touchdowns.  The Defense is also a lot better so the offense should have the ball some more.  I'm looking at him to get numbers around 1,300 yards and 8 TD

Answer 4

I can't remember a season with so many question marks at the RB position.

Running back by Committee is very much in fashion, so that factor alone makes your crystal ball as effective as mine.

My mantra is VALUE.  A sleeper can be determined best by where he is taken, and how he stacks up against others at his position.

Though I swore I would never trust Mike Shanahan, I have been watching Denver's tailback situation very closely.

1. Travis Henry is gone.  In theory, he's a sleeper.  I can't believe he will be out of football.  When the injuries pile up, he could easily reward a late round "flyer" pick.

2. Denver's starting job is Selvin Young's to lose.  He bulked up to 212, and has looked very impressive in the OTAs.  His work ethic pleases Shanahan.  He's never carried the ball enough in the past, but the ability is there.

3. The Broncos return a healthy Jay Cutler, with his undiagnosed diabetes under control.  He had a monster second year, and is poised for a breakout.

4. The Broncos return perennial Pro Bowl center and line-anchor Tom Nalen, and add Ryan Clady to a line decimated by injuries and retirement.

5. Risk: Other backs in camp could emerge, with the likeliest suspects being Ryan Torian and Michael Pittman.

6. Young's potential value comes in a Brian Westbrook mold, catching 50+ passes.

A lot of fantasy managers will avoid Denver backs almost completely.  A savvy manager will watch the board, talk them down, and then snap up Young or Torian.

My other candidate: Thomas Jones.

The Jets bring in Alan Faneca, Tony Richardson and OT Damien Woody to bolster the run game.

His 1 TD was horiffic last season, but he was high in attempts, so the Jets are committed to running the ball.  I think Jones should reward owners with production closer to what he produced in Chicago.

Answer 5

It depends upon what you consider your "sleeper."

For me, I consider a sleeper to be someone who is taken after they should be in most scenarios.... in otherwords, someone who is a great value pick - guys who will stick around an extra round when they will produce as well as or better than the guys in front of them. Keeping that in mind, here are some picks...

Willis McGahee - He was 8th among RB in fantasy points. Yet no one seems to ever want to draft him. He will be there into the second round, and if he is, you should pick him up.

Marshawn Lynch - Seems to have been forgotten because of the ADP hype, but remember this guy only played in 11 games, and only 10 RBs had more fantasy points than him in most leagues. Injuries are a concern, as well as an awful team around him, but I like his potential.

Thomas Jones -  Keep in mind the Jets added one of the best guards in the league (Faneca) and a solid starter (Woody) to help out D'Brickashaw and Mangold, and they are only a year removed from being a 10-6 team... I think they could surprise some people. Jones runs the ball a ton, and I think he'll be better than last year with a revamped line. The big concern is TD opportunities.... I'd say he gets 6-8 this year.... better than 1, right?

Steven Jackson - Pretty obvious, right? Expect the Rams as a team to do a ton better, but he'd definitely meet your increased production parameters, and a lot of people are shying away from him until the end of the first round.

Brandon Jacobs - He was a monster last year when he was healthy, and injury concerns as well as the crowded NY backfield has made people shy away from him. He still got some carries in the post season, and even put up 4 TD's through the 4 wins, despite struggling in yardage. I think he'll be fine, and the clearcut starter as long as he stays healthy. Plus he's the obvious choice for a goalline back since Droughns is out of favor... I'd imagine he gets 1000 yards, 10 TD's.

Selvin Young - handcuff him with one or all of the Denver backs because you never know whats going to happen there, but from the looks of it, expect him to get the bulk of the carries. He's falling way past where I expected him to go, and if you can get him that late, he's worth the risk, especially in a PPR league.

Travis Henry - Yeah, seriously. Could it hurt to take him with the last pick in the draft? If theres an injury, and he signs on somewhere, he's still the same guy who led the league in rushing for a month last year, and he has all the potential to play and start.... even if he has to bring his 29 kids to every game...

Answer 6

maroney,,everyone will concentrate on ne's air attack and forget about him..

Answer 7

I won't put it as astutely as the people who have responded before me, but my sleeper pick, if a 4th rounder can be a sleeper, is Michael Turner. In filling in for LT, Turner showed he can run inside and out and has the speed to run away from defenders. New offensive coordinator in Atlanta, Mike Mularkey, likes to throw short to backs as a saftey valve so there's a chance for Turner to produce even more.

And I agree with the Denver assessment earlier. The zone blocking scheme the Broncos use seems to make every back it uses post better numbers than anything they had ever known before. Monitor that situation.

Answer 8

1. either fred taylor or maurice jones-drew. i expect one of them to get injured, and the other one to have a monster year. however, i would say the chances of either being The One are exactly 50/50. I think last year where they both stayed healthy was a pure fluke, and it rarely if ever happens. (e.g. larry johnson/priest holmes, duce/bettis, bettis/parker, jones/barber, etc. etc. etc.)

2. Adrian Peterson: the addition of Bernard Berrian is huge. The early reports out of training camp is that BB and Tavaris are meshing nicely, and could open up the running game for AP, along with their already awesome o-line. This should also keep him healthier, and if he plays even 2-3 more games, that would easily give him 400 yards/2 tds over his stats last year.

3. LT: given his career averages, last year was an off year for him, and having fewer passing options means more running opportunities for him.

4. the rookies: my big rookie pick this year is selvin young. shanahan loves the rookies, and denver is always RB friendly. After that, i think forte, k. smith, and j. stewart will have good years, but selvin's will be better. Selvin is the only one I'm drafting as a solid 3rd RB. the others are speculative 4th RB picks for me.

5. N.Y. giants RBs: I'm not 100% sold on brandon jacobs or ahmad bradshaw, but the giant's o-line is definitely solid. jacobs should have better stats just by starting this year, but if he gets injured, expect bradshaw to have similar production.

6. Ronnie Brown/Willie Parker: both will benefit from an RBBC situation, and if they stay healthy, expect better results. These two, because of their low TD totals from last year, are huge ADP values usually in the 4th or 5th rounds, and are solid picks if you have bye week issues as 3rd rb's. however, "better" stats doesn't necessiarly mean "good" stats.

Answer 9

Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers.

Answer 10

meeting your criteria i think all these guys should get over 400 yards or 2x TDs.

Steven Jackson

Larry johnson

Ryan Grant

MJD

Turner

Ronnie Brown

Parker

Bush

Julius Jones

Rudi Johnson

Thomas jones

Selvin Young

Tatum Bell

Answer 11

I would say SF Frank Gore. He wasn't playing much because of injuries, and if anything, Alex Smith isn't ready yet, and I can see this guy getting the ball a decent amount.