Which technology do you think will win HD-DVD or BluRay DVD?

Question

When Video Cassette Recording was the latest technology Disney brought out of the “Vault” some of it’s oldest films. Films like Snow White and Cinderella. They encouraged everyone to rush out and get a copy before they put them back in the “Vault” just as VCRs were going away for the new DVD technology to emerge.

Three of the films that have been once again out of the “Vault” and available on DVD are now being advertised as going back in the “Vault”. Cinderella, Cinderella II and Cinderella III are going back in the “Vault” by January 31, 2007.

Now that we own them on VCR and DVD and the DVD technology is getting old they are going back in the “Vault” again.

How long do you think it will be before they will be out of the “Vault” once again on HD-DVD or BluRay DVD?

Answer 1

I don't know why people feel there will be a monolithic world regarding home video. The world is currently fractionated into different groups ... a proportion ignore physical home video in any format (relying on SD or HDTV programming), some continue to use VHS (often taped from TV), a majority use DVD, a small minority have adopted HD disks in one or both of two formats (HD DVD and Blu-ray) and some use various forms of Video on Demand or download services. A majority use a combination of the foregoing.

At this point it is unlikely either HD disk format will "win" (or "lose"). Both will likely coexist as niche formats supported by the minority of consumers who can benefit from them (ideally a 1080p HDTV of mid->large size, with HDMI connectivity) and are willing to pay the higher cost (relative to DVD). Most consumers will continue to use DVDs, with a slow switch to various evolving formats of VOD / download of sub-1080p HD video.

The days of physical media are slowly ending. It will take quite a while, but the writing is on the wall. DVD sales were declining before HD disks were available (and one of the main incentives for the industry to introduce HD disks in the first place ... as an excuse to once again be able to charge high prices) as on-line video began to become a viable option.

Don't get me wrong, for those who want to own libraries of movies and can afford HD disks they are an attractive option, BUT they do not offer a sufficient benefit over DVD to convince the majority of consumers (except those fooled by ads and unaware of the facts) to pay the high prices for new HD audio and video equipment and the high prices of the media. For many the convenience of VOD / downloads will be more attractive -- particulalry once pricing and performance improve (which they will).

For most consumers physical ownership and higher quality are less important than price and convenience.  Think of what happened with CDs and the attempt to introduce HD audio in the form of the competing SACD and DVD-A formats. What happened? HD audio was hit with a minority of audiophiles, but overall was largely ignored becoming niche formats with limited available disks. What the majority of consumers chose was lower quality, but higher convenience in the form of MP3s.

I maintain the same forces will play out with HD disks. But we'll have to wait and see. Unfortunately we are to a large degree in the hands of industry (hardware manufacturers and studios .. supported by government regulators ... just look at HDCP and HDMI as formats forced on us). Should they ever be able to agree they could force a single format (Blu-ray or HD DVD) and even discontinue DVD sales. Luckily for us there are too many vested interests for this to be likely ... so ultimately we will (probably/hopefully) have a choice and my $$ and yours will decide.

Personally, I've tried HD disks and find DVDs are a superior benefit/cost option (the benefits are not worth the costs) at this time. This may change if industry are forced to drop prices on disks ... but I'm not holding my breath. Just be glad there was format war or prices would still be MUCH higher.

Answer 2

BluRay DVD.  It will probably take les than 10 years.

Answer 3

What is everybody talking about??? NO FORMAT HAS WON THE BATTLE.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20071224/bs_...

Answer 4

Until DVD is replaced,HD DVD and Blue-ray can co-exist indefinitely.They are still only an option.

Answer 5

I'll give you a quick, unbiased overview.

Even though Blu-Ray has the better upside while going into the future, the public doesn't see future...they see present.  The HD-DVD players are cheaper to produce, which makes them generally cheaper to purchase.  (The Blu-ray prices have really dropped to make them competitive, but HD-DVD is still cheaper to acquire)  

Back in the Beta vs. VHS battle, Beta was the better one suited for the future, but was more expensive.  Exact same thing is happening here.

There are many factors that go into which one may win, but it teeters back and forth.

One of the biggest factors that I think will push HD-DVD to victory is the support from the adult film industry.  Now not everyone watches p**n, but whichever side the industry supports, all of the p**n watchers in this world will flock to that side.  HD-DVD actually has gained a verbal agreement from adult film companies and HD-DVD actually has its factories producing adult films, while Blu-Ray doesn't embrace the adult film industry.  (There have been several third party factories that are producing adult films in Blu-Ray, and Sony chooses to let them be but not recognize them).  The adult film industry chose VHS, and we know who won the VHS/Beta battle.

The final thing that hinders the success of Blu-Ray is the success of the PS3.  Right now, the PS3 is sucking in sales, and Sony needs to get their act together and get their good games out soon so people will actually buy PS3's...and at the same time already have a Blu-ray player built in.

If I were to choose a winner, I'd say HD-DVD by a nose hair cause history tells us they'll win.  (Did you know Sony was the main backer behind Beta 20 years ago?).  I can easily see it going the other way though.

I'd suggest, unless you were really serious about movies and were going to buy or have a full 1080p TV, maybe you should hold off for another year till things get sorted out.

Answer 6

BluRay DVD will win

Answer 7

There are over 7.5 million Blu-Ray Players a lone just from the Sony PlayStation 3.  Blu-Ray contains more storage , the resoloution is just amazing not even 1/4th of an HD DVD can perform at the quality of a Blu-Ray.  As of rite now the quality between the two has Blu-Ray better by quite a bit but by next year it will be uncomparable.  Blu-Ray will win I garuntee it.

Answer 8

BluRay will win. Both are pretty common, but Sony already uses it (with their PS3). HD-DVD doesn't provide as much storage space. If you're looking to buy one though, I'd suggest waiting at least a couple of months, to find out who the winner is.