Who can win the Formula One drivers’ championship?
No-one expected this season to be so exciting, not even in Bernie Eccelstones wildest non-money related dreams, if he has any.
With one race left mathematically four drivers are still in championship contention. Way back in March when this season kicked off, with a drab affair in Bahrain, it looked like the new rules about fuel, strange qualifying and bizarre point scoring had completely sucked the last ounce of fun out of sport that was quickly resembling rush hour on the M25.
Yet now we return to the desert some nine months later awaiting with bated breath the apex of the most rip-roaring season in recent memory.
Right now sitting aloft the drivers table is Fernando Alonso. He has the advantage of knowing what it takes to be a champion and he is currently the form driver in terms of top-three finishes in the second half of the season.
At one stage the Spaniard looked well and truly out of it, however since the Germany Grand Prix in July he has been sensational with podium finishes in every race bar his retirement in Belgium. Ironically it was the Germany Grand Prix that galvanised his championship charge but his win was clouded by the team orders affair. What are the odds that that will come back and rear its ugly head should Alonso complete his hat-trick of championships on Sunday?
Regardless of how he got there Alonso is the man sat at the summit and he goes into Sunday’s race knowing that first or second place will clinch it for him, or third if Mark Webber comes second. Simples as the meerkat on the TV adverts would say.
In terms of form Alonso has reason to be confident. With three wins in his last six starts he is getting a lot out of the Scuderia at the moment. But, to be sure, he could really do with pole position in Abu Dhabi because if the Red Bull boys get past him on the first corner - like they did to Nico Hulkenberg on Sunday - then it could be game over for the Ferrari man.
At least Alonso knows he has the full backing of his teammate, whether he likes it or not, unlike the quarrelsome Red Bull racers. Sebastian Vettel and Webber’s rivalry has been a great subplot this season; they are hot on Alonso’s heels and by all intents and purposes one of these two should have had the title sewn up by now because their car is by far the quickest out there. However they have made a plethora of errors this season mechanically and tactically.
Perhaps they were side-tracked by their rather silly “Red Bull loves you more than me” feud but, for whatever reason, they seem to have let the drivers’ championship slip from their grasp, despite romping home in the constructors’ version.
Their car is much better than the Ferrari but Alonso has won two championships in a Renault and he can get the best out of a less-impressive car so there is no way the Austrian team can rely on pace alone.
If he doesn’t win it Webber will rue the day for the rest of his life. The Australian has been sitting pretty high the charts for the whole season but lost his way during the run-in and has had to watch Alonso nip past him. There’s no question that over the course of the season as a whole Webber has been the most consistent driver but he hasn’t had a first place since Hungary on August 1st and is now paying the price.
He’ll get no support from Vettel and knows if his teammate beats him into second again and Alonso doesn’t finish he will lose it on races won. A cruel blow indeed. Should he win and Alonso is third or lower the championship is off to Oz.
Vettel can count himself unlucky to be in third place and slightly adrift going into the last race. The German had some miserable luck at the beginning of the season but kept himself buzzing around. Two wins in the last three plus his alleged team backing make him a dark-horse for last day glory. He will need a large dose of luck though, namely Alonso to retire or unlikely finish fifth or lower. He can only go out there and prey the prancing horse scuffs a hoof.
On a side-note it will be interesting to see what Red Bull do if it’s Vettel, Webber then Alonso going in to the final corner. Then we will really find out who the No.2 driver is.
Meanwhile flying the flag for Britain is Lewis Hamilton who just needs to rely on the straight forward result of all three of his challengers crashing out. You will be able to see Hamilton’s grin even from underneath his yellow crash helmet if this happens. The former world champion is the only other driver mathematically in this, but he would need luck on par with finding a winning lottery ticket in a paper recycling plant if he wants to lift that trophy again.
Still, the way this season has gone it’s not to be ruled out entirely.
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