Who will be Aidan O’Brien’s new stable jockey?
It is one of the hottest tickets in town, but just do not bank on it lasting that long.
For all his quiet demeanour, Aidan O’Brien seems to have a habit of losing stable jockeys and is looking for his fourth in six years after http://www.senore.com/Johnny-Murtagh-quits-as-Ballydoyle-stable-jockey-a39642. Given that the yard, in a year when the most glittering prizes proved to be out of reach, still won 14 Group or Grade One races it is likely to be a profitable tenure for whoever parks their saddle at Ballydoyle for 2011, even if it may be a short-term deal.
Pat Smullen had appear to be the front-runner but now seems to be ruled out after Dermot Weld told the Racing Post: “Pat Smullen will be retained jockey for next season and hopefully for the foreseeable future. He is a world-class rider and has ridden Group One winners for me in Ireland, France and the United States. He's a valuable member of the team here at Rosewell House and follows in the footsteps of Michael Kinane. Pat is a pleasure to work with and we've struck up a great combination.”
The news that Smullen has been ruled out of the running leaves the contest wide open.
Racing thrives on what is termed “inside information” and few know the inner workings of the set-up better than Colm O'Donoghue and Seamus Heffernan. Current thinking tends to put O'Donoghue as the yard’s No.2, although Heffernan has more major wins under his belt. Both would appear reliable back-up riders without necessarily being the ones to handle the pressure of the No.1 role.
There is no doubt that O’Brien’s son, Joseph, is a talent and is it equally true that he has been fast-tracked with rides in big races but, just 18 months on from his first winner, he is not ready for the job. Another issue would be just how, if in time the son does rise, the personal relationship between the two will survive the inevitable tensions that come with such a pressurised working relationship.
The relatively lighter schedule of the Irish fixture list might be a temptation for jockeys based currently based in Britain. Ryan Moore, at least according to the rumour mill, has been approached and already turned down the chance while Richard Hughes might just be a bit too much of a maverick in the saddle for the forensically-inclined O’Brien. Jamie Spencer and Kieren Fallon enter calculations but, as former incumbents, will O’Brien was to retrace his steps?
If O’Brien was looking long-term then Tom Queally and William Buick fit the bill but both may need a little more time. Paul Hanagan, fresh from claiming his first jockeys’ title, has hardly been mentioned but has just the sort of work ethic that would suit O’Brien and has steadily become a go-to rider for a number of British trainers as his star has ascended this season.
Hanagan lacks the international profile that goes with this job but gives every impression of a rider who is good enough to get the job done if the horse is good enough. Whether he can provide the inspired moment that means the difference between victory and defeat in a Group One race – which is the basic currency of the Ballydoyle set-up – remains to be seen and could be something that counts against him.
One ready-made replacement who appears to have dropped off the radar is Jimmy Fortune. There was general surprise when he was replaced by Buick as John Gosden’s stable jockey for the start of the 2011 season.
Fortune had a quiet time of it this season but has ridden for O’Brien before and, if previous form is anything to go by, has the advantage of being Irish. That would appear to be a factor and not simply because of local knowledge because Fallon had not ridden at any bar a handful of the main Irish tracks for many years before he took the job in 2005.
That would seem to rule out the likes of Christophe Soumillon (who also gives every impression of a character who would not gel well with O’Brien) despite being well-supported in the markets and Olivier Peslier. What could happen is something of the compromise deal that has developed in jump racing where trainers like Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson use the services of top Irish-based riders Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty for the main rides while relying on local jockeys for other meetings.
Looking closer to home Fran Berry and Declan McDonagh have claims but may lack the big-race experience on the international stage.
Whoever gets the job is likely to be in for the ride of the career - even if it is more likely to be a sprint than a staying event.
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