Who will be number one golfer after Sunday
In 1998, Tiger Woods ended the year as the number one golfer in the world for the first time. This was less than 18 months after turning professional. He held onto that title for 342 weeks in a row until 2004 when, ironically, he lost it to the winner of the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits: Vijay Singh.
The following year, he regained the crown and has held onto it ever since. That was 270 weeks ago, and his position at the top of the world of golf has never been so shaky after a very ordinary year for him in which not only has he not won a major, he hasn’t even won a tournament.
The past few weeks, a few players have had an opportunity to knock Woods off the top spot, most notably number two, Phil Mickelson, but also Lee Westwood and Steve Stricker, numbers three and four in the world respectively.
Lee Westwood’s chance has now gone after he pulled out halfway through the Bridgestone Invitational due to a calf strain that at one stage looked like it might be a clotting problem. In any case, Westwood also withdrew from the PGA Championship with an eye to getting fit in time for the Ryder Cup that starts October 1st in Wales.
That leaves Mickelson and Stricker, both of whom could overtake Tiger Woods at the PGA Championship under certain conditions:
Mickelson goes to number one:
If Mickelson wins, he takes the number one spot, end of story.
If he finishes second and Woods finishes outside the top thee
If he finished third and Woods is outside the top 11
If he finishes fourth outright, and Woods is worse than 46th, and Stricker doesn’t win
If he’s tied for fourth with one single other player, and Woods misses the cut, and Stricker does not win
Stricker goes to number one:
It’s pretty simple for Stricker. If he wins, and Tiger is worse than 24th, and Mickelson is worse than third, he goes to number one.
Otherwise, Tiger stays at number one.
Betting advice
Bet on Woods to be number one after end of play Sunday. Three quarters through Thursday’s opening round, he’s a stroke ahead of Stricker and Mickelson, but that is a minor detail with more than three days left to play. In fact, that would be a minor detail with nine holes left to play.
The key factor is that Woods is playing well this week according to those who watched him in practise rounds, and his first round was better than a one-under-par round. If he has his confidence back, as he seems to, he could turn it on at any time and walk away with the PGA.
The second factor is that Mickelson was recently diagnosed with psoriatic arthritis, which causes his immune system to attack his joints and tendons. He’s being treated for it and it shouldn’t affect his play, but it’s a fresh diagnosis and you never can predict the effect of medication on the body in the early stages, which makes him a risky bet. Also, Mickelson had a great chance to overtake Woods last week and played one of the worst rounds of his life (he had the most bogeys ever in a single round in his career), which could be an indicator of the pressure he’s feeling to go number one, or it could also be that his body is still adjusting to the medication and his new vegetarian diet.
The third factor is Stricker. He’s playing at home and trying to win his first major as well as trying to take over the number one spot. That puts triple the pressure on him. Some players play better under pressure, but I wouldn’t count Stricker among those, not with his record of zero major championships.
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