Who’d win in a Pascal-Froch Rematch?
In light of Jean Pascal’s spectacular recent defeat of Chad Dawson, top super-middleweights and light heavyweights all want a piece of the recently crowned Ring Magazine champion. He’s the light-heavyweight to beat. And yet, Pascal has been beaten, by Carl Froch back in 2008. That fight was an instant classic, with both fighters putting everything into a twelve round punch-fest. So while Froch is currently tied up as part of the Showtime Super Six Boxing Classic tournament, there’s little doubt that when he’s open for new fights Pascal will be a chief challenger.
Indeed Froch recently spoke about the possibility of a rematch with Pascal, saying: "A rematch is something I would honour the man. Whether we do a catch weight or title fight – it’s something I would consider after the Super Six has concluded. A fight with Pascal would have all the ingredients and the Bell Centre looked very good indeed [...] Or we could do it here in the UK as he has won over a lot of fans this side of the pond too. British boxing fans voted our last meeting the fight of the year, so you just know it would sell like hot cakes here too.”
The first question with respect to a rematch would be the one Froch already asks: whether it’d be at a catch weight or an official weight. Though a technical question, it could be the biggest one. Last time these two fought it was at super-middleweight. But even then it was becoming hard for Pascal to maintain weight for the division, and a move up looked imminent. Froch on the other hand has found himself completely at home in super-middleweight, and it remains the only division he has competed in professionally. In other words, to move back down for Pascal might be almost out of the realm of possibility, and he might even be weakened by doing so, whereas Froch would be at his best at super-middleweight.
At the same time, if Froch tries to move up to light heavyweight for the fight, he may experience difficulties as well. He has already been criticized for a lack of speed as a super-middle, and what would happen with that at light-heavy? It seems reasonable to expect he would only get slower—and that would translate into big problems against a speedster like Pascal.
Therefore, a catch weight bout seems equalizing, but it’s unclear if both or either would be able to settle on terms.
In terms of actual fight predictions, the first fight provides a blueprint by which to evaluate a second. Pascal stole the first few rounds by pressing Froch into a slugging competition he couldn’t match in speed. But in later rounds Froch out-boxed Pascal, and was able to exploit his fatigue. The stamina factor became more and more apparent as time wore on, and it’s clear if Pascal is to have any chance redeeming himself, it’s going to have to start with endurance-training.
The other asset these two are basically comparable on is chin. Froch has never been knocked down as a professional, and neither has Pascal. This is telling, since both guys have gone up against truly formidable opponents, not least of which was each other. Unless they’re respectively stopped via TKO, it’s unlikely either of them will be knocked out from any one shot, and the fight will likely go the distance. Meaning it’s going to come down to who has the better technical game play and can control the fight.
If Pascal doesn’t tire, he’s demonstrated he can win. At the same time, when he’s put under a lot of pressure, he’s proven beatable. Against Chad Dawson he looked his best—but Dawson hardly put the kind of pressure on him that would be necessary to win. With Froch you can expect him to, so Pascal will have to rely on speed, aggression, and stamina.
Tags: