Why are geologists able to make long-termbut not short-term predictions about earthquakes?

Question

Why are geologists able to make long-termbut not short-term predictions about earthquakes?

Answer 1

See the fallowing methods are in use. The long term and very short term are only now possible.Others are working in long term prediction.I am working in instant warning system ( Early warning ). This can only help to save the people for the present situation.I am the one issued the warning 2 hours before Tsunami struck our coast.

Methods for prediction of earthquakes & Tsunami

Even though it is difficult to predict, the following methods may help.

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1. Seismic gape: - The earthquake at a particular place may occur for every fixed gape of time. By knowing the past records of the quakes affected at that place may help to decide when the earthquake is next due.

2. Planet position.: - When the stress is accumulated at the tectonic plate boundary and the same time if the position of more than 2 planets comes in a straight line this may help to accelerate the earthquakes. There fore the full moon days and new moon days are more vulnerable days for earthquakes. Some time this method fails why? Think of a sick patient. New moon and full moon days are dangerous for only sick patents. These days will not affect the healthy people. The same way if there is no accumulated stress at the tectonic plate boundaries no need to worry about the planet positions.

3. Sun rays falling method: - If you observe the position of the sun rays falling on our wall at a particular time on all days it should form an angular infinity symbol. If there is any deviation in its path it means that there is some difference in height of the earth. That means some strain noticed at that place. Somebody claims that they can predict the place of epicenter by observing this. The laser beam measuring method of earth height from satellite also will help.

4. MDCB:- Chinese scientist claims that they can predict up to 60 % accuracy by sensing electro magnetic rays.

5. Cloud forming: - Few hours to a few days before the occurrence of earthquakes a cloud reader claims that he has noticed a peculiar mosaic type of formation .We may also notice some lightening in the sky.

6. By sound :- A professor from Ajmeer University claims that he was able to hear a low frequency noise under 125 meter depth in a bore well. The same thing was reported by one Mr. Nair that he heard some roaring noise under the earth one week before the occurrence of earthquake in Gujarat.

7. By frequency of waves :-  Mr Richter Allen of Berkley University claims that he can decide the magnitude of earthquake just  4 seconds after observing the frequency of the primary wave. Present method needs the full seismographic picture to find the real magnitude that too from as many places as possible to have fairly accurate results. His claim has got some truth because when there is a slip of bigger tectonic plate the frequency of quake will be less. If a small tectonic plate slips the frequency of the waves will be more.

8. There are several changes in nature and in the behaviors of animals and birds can be observed before an earthquake and Tsunami. The water level in well may change. Stay away from beaches if you sense earthquake waves. The Tsunami may attack long after the shaking is stopped. I wrote several articles on these subjects.  

Have one simple earthquake alarm installed in your house.



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Answer 2

These earthquakes would take extreme amounts of computer modeling, with processing power that we don't possess yet. The mathematics and uncertainty behind movements are so unpredictable in science that it is more based on probability. Even small particles, like electrons, can't be determined exactly, but only with probability, so larger things like tectonic plate movements that cause earthquakes are even more extreme. So, scientists can only guess when they will occur with some certainty, but it is too difficult with current technology.

Answer 3

So far long term or short term predictions have not become reality.

Saying that an earthquake can come any time is no prediction.

thnks