Why are your forecasts so vague (partly cloudy?) and yet inaccurate?

Question

Yesterday (Wed) you forecast a low in Thames of 10 degrees for today (Thu). Today your forecast for Thames low today is 5 degrees. This is a HUGE difference.

Often you will say it is going to rain (or be fine) 2 days out, but the follwoing day you will have changed it totally.

I have lived in other places and they can do it better. What's the problem?

Answer 1

Many factors go into guessing the weather.

If you live in a desert and predict sunshine everyday, you'll have a very high success rate.

If you live in a tropical rain forest and predict rain everyday, your have a very high success rate.

If you live in an area with complex weather patterns, then your chances of being correct are greatly reduced.

Now having said that, what do you think the chances are that all the scientists are correct in their predictions concerning global warming causes?  I personally don't think they are any better than your weather forecasts for the Thames.

Answer 2

Don't trust those people from the weather office.  Their forecasts are always changing and inaccurate.

Answer 3

the factors involved in cloud formation are the following: humidity, air temperature, and if there are different levels of air.  Example, if you have two levels of air, one on top of the other, and a wind blows some of the warmer moist air into the colder air, the moisture will condense and form clouds.

the atmosphere is so sensitive,  it's too difficult to predict  what the weather will be like within your direct area.   So they pick a larger area, like a metro city area.  

I've actually watched a small cloud form, only to dissapear just as quickly.  

     also, the computer models that they use now are really good, much better than anything we've had before, but if something unpredictable changes, like wind direction, you could get a whole different outcome.