Why can't a political poll give us a straight answer?

Question

Whenever you see a poll on television, they always tell you "margin of error +/- x%. How can you have a margin of error? Does this mean that the people asking the questions screwed up? Why can't you just tell us the response to the question? If the people lied on the survey, that is not something that you are responsible for, is it? What those numbers in the poll tell me, when I see a MOE is that you are pulling this data out of your rear.

Answer 1

Because people who answer polls lie about different parts of the polls for different reasons.

For instance, among REGISTERED voters, Obama shows a slight lead over McCain in many polls. The problem is, most of the Democrats in those polls won't vote, so the numbers are really skewed.

Among LIKELY voters, most polls have McCain ahead. These are generally more accurate but all polls are basically useless.

Answer 2

Statistics is a very complicated setup.

You;re always measuring a small sample of the population and then extrapolating that answer across the entire population.

That extrapolation is where the margin of error is.

You might have asked a non-representative sample of people.  It might be the wrong time of day - there can be any number of reasons why the poll could be off.

So the pollsters cover their butts.

The plus or minus numbers aren't picked at random, btw - there's a whole branch of mathematics dedicated to crunching the margin of error.

Answer 3

I think the reason is because they interview about thousand people and it doesn't give a real picture.I don't know how many times I have lied in a survey.

Answer 4

Polls are there only to make news. Nothing more.  

Answer 5

Only after the votes are counted can we get a straight answer.

Until then, we can pole relatively small numbers of people to try and get a very rough idea of any trends that might show up. If the poles are close, they are usually meaningless - only if they show an overwhelming slant to one side or the other are they a possible indication of what the actual votes will be. Thus far, the poles have been more or less meaningless - just plain too close to call.

Answer 6

The margin of error does not refer to anyone lying on a survey or in an answer to a poll.  It is impossible to ask all Americans, or even all American voters what they think about any particular thing, issue or candidate.  The poll is therefore limited to a selected group that is hopefully a representative sample.  The sample may have a certain percentage of white voters, and black voters, as well as different socio-economic groups.  The error comes from not being able to poll the entire population and it is a calculation based on statistical applications.

Answer 7

unless everybody in the country got polled i wouldn't pay no attention to them.

Answer 8

Listen I never listen to polls, besides who cares what a bunch of Pollocks think anyway.

Answer 9

Polls can be biased by asking slanted questions. But, a margin of error doesn't reflect the accuracy of the poll or how slanted it may be.