Question:

Why did North Korea back down on their Nuclear program?

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And why can't the same be done with Iran? Is it because of... oil?

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  1. Partially because they obtained what they want (as Mao above says). Mr Kim, the president of North Korea is using  a very East Asian  way of negotiation, letting things go close to the extreme without an explanation, just to resume talks when he is sure he cannot obtain more offers. It's a dangerous game, bordering  gambling, but it is also a classic of North Korean diplomacy and Asian negotiations.

    If you look at the different roles played by the countries in the "group of five" meetings you will find  the reasons of the outcome:

    USA: Luckily the right balance of pressure and concessions was applied by USA (Blocking a bank in Macao, and , directly or through Japan, some ships and supplies from South Korea was a message sounding as " we know how to hurt you silently") leaving a door open to Kim in order to keep face and obtain some more support to let the country float a little bit more. You had very good negotiators (that is why they were belittled by your current administration), with a sound knowledge of their counterpart.

    CHINA and RUSSIA: were of course very powerful elements in the negotiation. Without their help (food, oil, raw materials and finished products) North Korea will sink in a matter of months if not weeks.

    CHINA needs stability in the Korean peninsula: relationships with South Korea are very good, relationships with Japan are improving and China is involved in that big image campaign of  Olympic games: they have no space for a little bullish boy at their side and North Korea is becoming more and more a pain in the a.. for them.

    RUSSIA is negotiating oil and gas supplies with both China and Japan: it is better for Russia (the only real supporter of Kim now: they have no other way to influence East Asia) to don't stamp too much Japanese, South Korean or even Chinese feet on this issue and I am sure they have increased pressure on Kim for a solution too.

    JAPAN was a delay, due to its own internal political problems. Mainly they made some sabre rattling improving their marine defense, and assisted USA in some  ship block.

    SOUTH KOREA: needed to don't loose face as an international player, now that a South Korean is secretary general of the UN. Moreover there is a new government and a president less willing to play the negotiation game. They put a very strong effort, took in charge a lot of the expenses and , finally,  North Korea's Kim knows the limits of his bluff and when to stop conceding some face to its counterpart.

    This mix of pressure, concessions, and years of experience in smarta.s  negotiations of North Korean made it possible (at least up to the next internal crisis in N. Korea, if Kim clique will be still strong enough)

    IRAN is completely different: There is less interest in negotiations and Iranians know it well.

    First of all they know how it went in Iraq.

    I mean: they know that nuclear weapon are a deterrent only if you really have them and if the other believe you are really ready to use them (more or like as a gun is a deterrent).

    If you don't have (as Saddam did: it is clear now they didn't had the ghostly WMD, and the USA were well aware of it) you become an easy prey  while ifyou have, like  i.e. Pakistan, you become a dear friend.

    They also know or suppose that, whatever the negotiation, whenever they develop or not WMD,  whenever they are hard end Islamist or peaceful hippies, they are an important target of current USA administration: partially for their resources (or the control of regional sources: the race to resources is becoming harsher) and for their geopolitical and strategical situation. One of the big problem is where the pipeline for former Soviet Union countries oil and gas will pass (one of the big reasons of Afghanistan war).

    o feel Iran as an American target : event a President like Carter tried to attack them, and Israel is threatening them daily: it is obvious they feel uncomfortable and not so keen to believe in peaceful words.

    Moreover Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, is a little bit more involved and ....fanatic? (or hard believer? you choose the word) than old Kim .

    He has a blog here you may check http://www.ahmadinejad.ir/en/

    Probably Iran is waiting to see the first moves of your next government, then the negotiation may become serious


  2. North Korea is basically a paper tiger holding the world by its grip as a hostage.North Korea had no resources and many embargos have been placed on N.Korea.To get what it wants it created the nuclear threat as a indirect scream for help from the world.Nk agreed to shutdown its Nuclear program once its allowed to trade with selected countries that can provide it oil,chemicals,necessities etc.For the survival of its nation it backed down its program for resources.

  3. in alphabetical order

    B1

    B2

    B52

    F15

    F16

    F/A 18

    Tomahawk

    and those rumored to exist 'solid rock' warheads on the ICBMs; instead of a nuke you have 500 lb of mass coming in at 5,000 mph......that makes a BIG hole in the ground......

    and why cant we do the same to Iran, before they make a bomb and fry Israel which fries the Mid East in return?

    EXCELLENT QUESTION.

    and its  not because we buy any oil from Iran because we don't..it is a fear that Iran if attacked will try to close the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which 40  % of the worlds oil ( from Kuwaitt and Saudi ) flows ( can you say 10 dollar a gallon gas and 40 % unemployment?)

    assuming of course the Iranians could establish a blockade in the face of the USN, RN, and the IJN ( Japan gets 90% of its oil from the mid east to make your Honda and Sony TVs and X boxes..........)

  4. economics

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