Why did global temperature averages drop recently while the co2 level remains the same or higher?

Question

Yes, I know its winter in the northern hemisphere, no need to state that.

Im just confused as to why temperatures do not keep rising with the rising co2 level. If AGW were true, then shouldn't the increase in temperature be proportional to the increase in co2? Doesnt the fact that they dont rise proportionally ruin the predictions made by some scientists, as this is the method they use to predict future temperatures? (Extrapolation)

Answer 1

Maybe the cows stopped doing their nasty.

Answer 2

The sun does most of the leg work, since you noticed its winter in the northern hemisphere.....what else occurs in the norther hemisphere during this time?

Less sunlight.....gasoline can help fuel a fire, but gasoline by itself will not ignite....you need a charge.

Same applies with CO2 and the Sun's Rays

It quite possibly could, but as you and I know "correlation is not causation"  I am not a big believer in global warming, as its attributed to man.  We dont even inhabit 1/4 of the planet.

Answer 3

Average global temperature would only be proportional to average CO2, if the temperature/GHG relationship is linear.  It is not.

For example, CO2 has been absorbed by the oceans and is being buffered by the destruction of micro-organisms that are dissolving in the increasingly more acidic waters.  This and many other buffers are beginning to fail as the base of the global ocean food chain is being rapidly destroyed.

According to NASA, "The year 2005 was the warmest year in over a century, according to NASA scientists studying temperature data from around the world."

The five hottest years since 1890, according to NASA, are (in order) 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004.  

If 2007 is only the 10th hottest in the last 120 years, the 5-year running average would show a declining temperature.

Answer 4

Because CO2 is not the only factor effecting the planet's climate and weather.  For example, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle plays a significant role in year-to-year weather.  The reason 1998 was the hottest year on record was because it was an incredibly strong El Nino cycle year.

"The El Niño of 1997 - 1998 was particularly strong and brought the phenomenon to worldwide attention.  The event temporarilly warmed air temperature by 3°F, compared to the usual increase of 0.5°F associated with El Niño events"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1...

Now we're in the middle of a strong La Nina event, so the weather is relatively cold.

On average, temperatures do continue to rise with the rising CO2 level, as you can see here:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-...

When you look at longer periods of time, the short-term weather averages out.  That's why the AGW predictions can be made.  You can't predict exactly what the temperature will be in 2042, but you can predict approximately how much the average global temperature will have increased by that date.  Again, I refer you to this graph:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

See how the black dots (yearly temps) bounce all over the place, but the red line (5-year average) has increased steadily upwards?  That's what I'm talking about.

Answer 5

thats nature for you, it gets warmer then colder then warmer again and so on.

Answer 6

The short answer is that CO2 levels do not drive global temperature trends. In fact, in spite of "conventional wisdom", the opposite is more likely and more apparent. Not only does the data support temperature changes causing changes in CO2 levels, basic scientific reasoning supports it as well. CO2 is a water soluble gas that is slightly more dense ("heavier") than air. The oceans hold vast quantities of dissolved CO2. The colder the ocean water, the more CO2 will stay dissolved. As temperatures rise, the oceans will not hold as much CO2, and atmospheric levels will rise. As temperatures drop, the equilibrium shifts toward dissolved CO2 and atmospheric levels drop.

There is also another factor to consider. CO2 is not the gas with the largest contribution to the greenhouse effect. Water vapor is, by a very large margin.

Answer 7

You're right, there is absolutely no way this could happen in a highly nonlinear system.  Probably the people who point out that you could have short-term cooling in global temperatures in the presence of a long-term warming trend only *think* they understand more than you about climate, nonlinear systems, and spatial averages and such.  It is likely those same people who have kept mankind from colonizing the stars.

Answer 8

You are right to be confused, Co2 levels always FOLLOW the rises and falls of long term global temperatures, they do not, and never have, PRECEDED  them.

Answer 9

Clearly as the temperature rises, CO2 levels increase after several hundred year lag.  This added CO2 (and the human emissions) should increase the temperatures somewhat though the increase is generally less than the natural fluctuations.  This is demonstrated by the fact that the earth has gone through several cycles where increasing CO2 did not cause run away temperature increases.  In my opinion, there is no reason to believe that human emissions of CO2 will do that either.  There is no good reason to believe that human emissions of CO2 will do anything except moderate the temperature slightly with theoretical increases of a degree or two (debatable) from whatever the natural trend would have been.  Clearly, they cannot predict that CO2 results in warmer temperatures since it has not been proven to significantly drive temperature changes.

Answer 10

There is no relationship between co2 and temperatures.  There is a relationship between the activity of the Sun and the temperatures of the climate on Earth.

Currently the Sun is cooling, and so is the Earth.

Answer 11

Obviously someone does need to state, yet again, that it is winter. Sorry, but it is. Weather is variable. Because the climate changes over a period of time you can't just look at 1 day, week, month or year for a trend. It has to be looked at over years, decades and longer.

Throughout the 20th century, the average global temperature increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius. During that time many records were broken for both high and low temperatures, what is different now?