Why did the "Waco Plan" of kidnapping and breeding an army fail?

Question

Why did the "Waco Plan" of kidnapping and breeding an army fail?

David Koresh of the Branch Dravidians belived that America was the "w***e of babylon" and peaceful conversion through persuasion was not an option. The only way to convert by force was to breed an army.

The mathematics works out pretty good, but we all know hoe waco ended.

Basically he intended to kidnap 20 girls and breed the, over 20 years.

20x20 thats 400 children

the 200 males would be trained to lauch their own Waco Plans

200x200

40,000 children in 20 years

20,000 x 20,000

400,000,000 in 40 years

Thats pretty unstoppable

The geometrical rates work so perfectly. Yet he failed. Why?

Answer 1

Because he was an idiot. And no I am not saying the government did a good job with the situation either.

Answer 2

First, the math breaks down when you get to biology.  Some females won't conceive.  Or they'll give birth to children with challenges or problems.  Or the males won't be able to produce the appropriate sperm.  So the idea that each of the 20 females would produce 20 children who'd live to adulthood--foolish.  Plus, you don't instantly create 20 males.  Instead you create 20 babies that divert time, energy and resources.  And those 20 babies don't conceive 20 males the next year and so on.  You need to do your math over again--you don't create 40,000 children in 20 years.  If you have 200 females, each having exactly 1 male child each year for 20 years than at the end of 20 years you only have 4,000 males (and statistically half will be females).  And at the end of 20 years, of the 20 kids had by each female, only 4 of those males will be 16 or older.  And actually it may only be 1-2 (with the others being female.

And when those 20 males you start with become old enough to start conceiving (irrelevant of intelligence, skills, school, professional ability, money-making capacity), then their time is taken away by conceiving and raising children).  What you're basically saying is that for 40 years you don't end up with 400,000 males--not even close.  You end up with a with a small town on welfare where all of the males (and females) are busy maintaining families.  Definitely not 400,000 males of fighting age.

Second, it assumes they're all robots.  For instance, many of the fundamentalist LDS sect had children run away or parents seek shelter.  They opted out.  And you assume all males will want to become members of this "army."  And it also assumes no-one would have intervened at some point.  Or that jealously or greed wouldn't have become a factor and someone in his "army" tried to remove Koresh from the head.  The larger the group, the less cohesive it becomes.

Third, it assumes that an army is just a bunch of bodies with an ideology.  Heck, if that were true than the Iranians would have kicked Saddam Hussein's butt in their war--and it didn't happen.

Finally, given how stupid Koresh was (and clearly he was a bozo), why would anyone think this would work?  As a general rule, stupid people fail.  And Koresh was stupid.  Regardless of what you think of the authorities and how they handled the Waco Situation, Koresh made a lot of enemies, abused underage girls, got outsiders not to trust him, shot at Federal agents.