Why do my AA's keep losing (NLHE)?

Question

I have lost about the last 18 out of 20 times with AA. Shouldn't this be a statistical impossibility? About half of the losses came against a lower pair (I'm a 9 to 1 favorite there, according to my stats calculator) and about a third of the losses came when I was the dominating favorite (AA vs Ax), or a 25 to 2 favorite. About half came with 4 card flushes or straights, the other half came when their pocket pair hit trips or they got a pair on the board to make trips.

As a side note, of the two I won, one was folded around to me, the other they finally stood up against jacks, the first time in 4 tries.

Answer 1

Remember that aces are still only just one pair, and one pair is pretty weak against heavy betting in multi-way pots. Now as for it being 18-out of 20 times you lost with aces i can feel your pain, but that's just poker. I have had A-K, A-A, K-K, and A-Q all back to back and i lost every single one of them. But don't lose hope because you will win more with aces, then you will lose with them. First of all if you are slow playing aces in multi way pots then that is your big issue here. With aces i never slow play them, only if I'm feeling tricky will i limp or slow play a big hand like aces, why let the guy with Q-J see a cheap flop and break you, when a raise would have made him fold the weak hand. Also you do need to get used to folding aces every now and then, folding one pair even though they are aces can be hard to do, but in a 3 way pot with a flop like K-Q-9 can be expensive for a guy holding aces, since draws will chase and get there, in flops like this i check then fold. In some spots i would rather have a hand like A-K since i can get away from it after the flop. So make good raises to get the field down, aces play better heads up then in 3-4 way pots. But sometimes your just on a bad run and no matter how good your hand you end up taking horrible beats, just ride out this bad run and it will get better over the long run if your playing good poker.

Answer 2

You know what they say about AA - either you win a small pot with them or lose a big one.  I try to maximize my wins by playing pretty straight forward with them and making decent sized pre-flop raises (at least 3-4 times the big blind and if there are several callers before me I may even go 5-6 times the big blind).  If I happen to hit trips with them, I may get a bit more creative but I'm just trying to win the pot no matter what the size.  I'd rather take down the blind and a couple of limpers than get the Aces cracked.  There's just too many ways to get suckered and beat with aces so it's best not to fall in love with them.  It sounds like you're on a bad streak and my best advice on that (and I did just go through a pretty hellish one that last 2-3 months) is to just realize luck is a part of poker.  Get your money in with the best of it, make good reads when you're given enough info to do so, and just roll with it.  I've found letting the bad beats roll off my back rather than dwelling on them really helps me not run into a whole run of them.  It sounds like BS but I swear it's true.  Give it a try and good luck.

Answer 3

The thing most people don't realize with Aces is that you have to know when your beat. Its JUST A PAIR. So many hands beat it.

While its statistically the best "starting" hand, you must identify where you stand with it. And never be afraid to let it go.

Im sure most beginners would play pocket Aces all the way to the river. While experienced players will let it go when they are beat.

Watch more footage of Daniel Negranu and his thoughts on the hand and how he plays it.

Answer 4

By the way, you are wrong about your stats.

AA vs 66 will win 80 % of the time.

AA vs AK is 9 to 1.

My opinion is that you misplay your AA, you lie about your real results or you are simply having a major bad streak.

Answer 5

As Doyle Brunson has said, pocket aces are really good for winning small pots or losing big pots.  With pocket aces you ideally want to face only one opponent on the flop.  You are still a slight favorite when facing two opponents, but once you are facing three, you are no longer the favorite.  Trapping with aces is not the ideal way to play them, by limping, you are just inviting more callers by making the pot bigger at no extra cost to anyone behind you, and you have no way of knowing what kind of hands you are against.  

You have not said whether you were playing in a ring game, or a tournament.  Aces are played very diffierently depending on which one of those you are playing in.  In a tournament, you make a standard tournament raise, and if you are raised, then you hammer with a re-raise.  If you are behind a raiser, you also re-raise, to isolate him. A standard raise in a tournament would be a 3 to 4 times the big blind raise, if no one has limped in front of you, if you have limpers, you add an extra bet for each limper.  Then after the flop, the board determines how you act.  If you catch an ace, and the board has no straight draws, or flush draws, you can then trap.  However, if there are draws, you best bet enough to ensure that no one is getting pot odds(if more than one I make sure they aren't getting implied odds). I go so far as to ask anyone in the pot with me, if I already don't know the answer "do you understand pot odds" if they say yes,  I bet accordingly, if I know they don't or get an answer that indicates they don't I will try to make them risk everything to draw. That only works when you can really cripple someone with your stack, or put them out, if that isn't the case, just bet as much as you can and hold on for the ride. While alot of folks don't use pot odds in tournaments, most good players do early on, just as a method to help make decissions, so the above play works with them, and them only.  Late in the tournament, you will face folks who are short stacked, or you might be short stacked, there it is just push and pray (we have all been there, and we have all had a prayer not answered).  

The reason for the standard raise is so you don't give out tells by your betting patterns. With really good players, you have to mix it up and deviate from the standard plays, so this answer is based on a normal tournament with it's normal array of players.

In ring games (cash games) a standard tournament raise will do nothing but invite others into the pot with you, you need a much more substantial raise.  The reason for this is that your blinds are always just a very small percentage of your stack, in a 1/2 game, it is just 6 dollars, in a 2/5 just 15 dollars, you see where I am going?  Those raises only invite callers because if only one person calls you everyone with anything will call due to the pot size.  In a 1/2 cash game I will bet somewhere close to 25 dollars, and I will normally get just one caller, the odds of my aces holding up just increased.  If I have a raiser in front of me, I will re-raise him (or her) substantially, depending on the raise, to the tune of 75 dollars or more and be happy with picking up the pot then.  If someone called the raise before my turn to act, it is more than likely a push all in.  Remember, this is in a 1/2 game.

As you can see, every action talked about above is designed to do one of two things, take the pot down pre-flop, or to face only one person for the flop.  It is always better, whether in a tournament or ring game, to win a small pot than to lose a big pot.  The actions are designed to help you do just that, while picking up the occasional big pot too.

One other thing, your odds calculator is off, as others have stated, so I will not go into that, but always, rember this, an over pair, is an 80% favorite to an under pair, so, you are going to lose 20% of the time, over the long term.  Don't let short term occurances eat at you, it happens.  We have all had aces cracked, but more importantly, we have all cracked aces ourselves.  Good luck.

Answer 6

Don't slow play them.  You want to see the flop against 1-2 people.  The more people who see the flop, the more likely it is that you're going to lose.  If there is a possible flush or straight draw on the board, try to take it down immediately.  At the very least, you need to make people pay for their draws.

When people lose with AA, KK, and AK on a regular basis lose because they misplay them.

You have to recognize when you are beaten, and not just with rockets.  KK, a small straight or flush, a small set, 2 pair, or even a smaller half of a potential full house (K-K-9-5-2 are on the board, you have 99, you think someone else has a K-9/5/2) are all solid but vulnerable hands that should be laid down in certain situations.

Anytime there are 4 cards to a flush on the board, you have to figure someone has it.  So unless you have the nut flush, fold.

I don't know how many times I've seen people slow play something when there are 3 cards to a flush or a potential straight, or a pair on the board then complain that their AA and KK NEVER win.  I've actually had people tell me that they hate AA and KK.  What hands do you like then, 7-2?

Answer 7

Slow play and trap? You mean you limped (or called) in pre-flop? That's your problem. Not raising pre-flop with pocket aces is a terrible move except in very specific situations. All you're doing is giving a greater number of players the opportunity to crack them.

You need to raise pre-flop, every time. Especially if you're not a great player. And when I say raise, I don't mean pushing all in into an un-raised pot. You need to raise just enough to get one caller. That's usually around 4-6x the BB, or more if there are already a couple of limpers.

Answer 8

Do you see how raising has increased your win ratio?  Keep it up and may you become a winning player with the right mentality for the game.