Why do you think so many people claim that global warming stopped in 1998?

Question

First off, even if there were no warming trend over the past 10 years, that wouldn't prove anything regarding global warming. CO2 isn't the only factor which impacts the global temperature. The average temp didn't change from 1988-1996, yet global warming didn't go away.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that the warming trend persists. Many 'skeptics' claim it's only shown in NASA data, but the Hadley Centre says:

"A simple mathematical calculation of the temperature change over the latest decade (1998-2007) alone shows a continued warming of 0.1 °C per decade."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/2.html

NOAA agrees. So do the satellites.

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/4way.jpg

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/03/02/whats-up-with-that/

So why do you think so many people continue to claim that there's been no warming over the past 7-10 years in an attempt to disprove man-made global warming?

Answer 1

"Why do you think so many people claim that global warming stopped in 1998?"

You need to change your heading. because its not a fact. people are being more aware of "Global Warming" now than it was in 1998, where did you ever come up with that date?Besides that Global warming has been going on for over a million year.Did you know that if everyone in the world would stop using land fills for garbage..There wouldn't be any global warming. NONE.....think about that one and see what cities are doing about that.. the answer is nothing....I got to get off this subject it makes me mad....

Answer 2

Dr. Tim Ball, Historical Climatologist

On the real danger for Canada, global cooling

Frontier Centre: We are all familiar with the modern theory that the world’s climate is getting warmer. Is it?

Tim Ball: Yes, it warmed from 1680 up to 1940, but since 1940 it’s been cooling down. The evidence for warming is because of distorted records. The satellite data, for example, shows cooling.

FC: Could you summarize the evidence that suggests the world is cooling slightly, not warming up?

TB: Yes, since 1940 and from 1940 until 1980, even the surface record shows cooling. The argument is that there has been warming since then but, in fact, almost all of that is due to what is called the “urban heat island” effect – that is, that the weather stations are around the edge of cities and the cities expanded out and distorted the record. When you look at rural stations – if you look at the Antarctic, for example – the South Pole shows cooling since 1957 and the satellite data which has been up since 1978 shows a slight cooling trend as well.

when David Anderson or the federal government says we are going to stop climate change, it is the most ludicrous statement in the history of the world. The climate changes all the time and dramatically. All you have to do is sit here in Manitoba and imagine that just 20,000 years ago, which in the Earth’s history is nothing, you would have been sitting under about 1,000 meters of ice. In fact, 20,000 years ago there was an ice sheet covering Canada that is larger than the current Antarctic ice sheet. All that ice melted in less than 5,000 years and we are not even sure where all the heat energy and the causes of that melting that occurred came from. So to suggest that the fractional amounts of CO² that humans are putting up has any influence on global climate is really quite ludicrous.

FC: How could so many scientists be on the man-made global warming bandwagon? Are their views derived more from political science than hard science?

TB: Well, their views are from political science, their views are also a function of where you go to get the funding and who provides the funding. But also, the majority of the scientists who are on the Kyoto and global warming bandwagon know nothing about the science. David Suzuki is a perfect example. He has said publicly that he would be happy to debate genetic modification with anybody, because that is his area of expertise. Well, I could say the same thing to him, that he doesn’t know anything about global warming or climate change and so I will debate it with him and so you have this problem. The other problem is that so many of the scientists who are quoted as being on side with global warming are actually doing studies on the impact of global warming and climate changes and their studies then are listed as evidence for support of it. They are not, they are just starting with the assumption that global warming is going to occur, and what effect that would have. That is not support or proof at all.

Answer 3

the earth goes through phases.  this is simply a phase.  the ice ages was a phase.   the world is getting warmer, but not due to us. people fear that the polar ice caps are going to melt, but they have been melting for decades.  ever hear of the titanic...sunk on a giant hunk of ice that broke off because it got weaker due to melting.   CO2 is killing the ozone, but there is no proof it is because of people and not because of plants.  they "breathe" in CO2, so plant a tree instead of complain via yahoo answers.  .1C isnt noticable at all, that is probably other why people still dont believe it.

Answer 4

Denial based on fear (of change), ignorance, herd mentality, avoidance of personal responsibility, you know, the usual...

The lack of logic or understanding of basic science by many in this forum - which, after all, is founded on a scientific issue - is astounding. Coupled with this is an incredible amount of distortion, off-topic distractions and outright lies.

For example:

Red - "never been any disagreement that the earth is warming"- you only need to look over the last few entries in this forum to come across numerous statements of "warming stopped in 1998".

"humans could NOT have changed the earth" - straight denial. You only need to look around to see where humans have changed the earth, let alone look at the science.

Matt Damon: ridiculously equates an iceberg (average around 5 thousand cu m and a  normal product of the seasons) to the melting of Arctic land ice (around 5 million cu m and a one-off catastrophic event) and then flaunts his ignorance with "CO2 is killing the ozone" - no one (except Matt!) thinks that!

At least BB is on the right track by quoting knowledgeable opposing opinions but the trick is in quoting knowledgeable and CREDIBLE opinions. Tim Ball is chairman of NRSP, a lobby group funded by oil, logging and mining companies.

Axfill: land fills = global warming! Where on Earth do people get this stuff?

Mikey: "the sun's activity is primarily responsible" despite this theory having been disproven over ten years ago, it still circulates... laziness, ignorance or deliberate misinformation?

Same for lack of studies on CO2 and temp correlation - there are many that indicate exactly this.

Average Joe does the same: "earth's mean temperature cycles around the freezing point of water", actually, the average over the past hundreds of millions of years has been 14 degrees C, not 0. And he continues with a muddy mixture of science, hypothesis and downright inaccuracies.

So why do they claim this?

Other than my first line I think we need to add cupidity: Some people just like to say something, anything, even if it is laughably (or pitifully in this case) wrong; it makes them feel important.

On the other hand, some of the more regular deniers (e.g. Randall, Evans, Boatman) - whom I generally disagree with - have made good points that would be worth adressing but such a debate would get lost here - too much sediment in the water!

But, to make up for them, good old Johnnie B pipes up with his usual unsupported false irrelevancies: Thanks for a laugh at the end, Johnnie!

Answer 5

they are not informed and are falling back on old info.

Answer 6

Cause there idiots. Global warming will never stop.

Answer 7

We are constantly bombarded with contridictory information.  The right wingers use Limbaugh and his ilk to spread misinformation.  

There is an ongoing noise machine that says that it is a hoax because Al Gore is paid so much for speeches and that he lives in a huge home.

The American public also senses that their president also thinks that it is a hoax.

The American public is confused and most feel peer pressure from their conservative friends to deny global warming.

Answer 8

Theres never been any disagreement that the earth is warming, the disagreement is over whether it's man made or not. Which it isn't. It's a natural cycle for the earth to take, to warm up, then cool down. Remember the ice age? Yeah, the little period of time when EVERYTHING WAS COVERED IN ICE!?!?!?! Yeah, right before that, Antarctica was a tropical climate.

We as humans could NOT have changed the earth in the 2-300 years since the industrial revolution. To think otherwise is a tad bit silly.

Answer 9

First off, even if there were no warming trend over the past 10 years, that wouldn't prove anything regarding global warming.

So no matter what happened you would not wake up and admit the truth. Right?  If we went in to another ice age, and Fl. froze solid, you would still make your claims of man made global warming right?  

Very NON-bias of you.

Answer 10

global climate change is a fact, sometimes it gets warmer, sometimes it gets cooler...the sun's activity is primarily responsible...that is just the way it is, the way it has been and the way it will continue to be...CO2 levels increasing, or decreasing just has not shown to be significant-there are no studies that show this...if you wish to believe opinions and empirical data, feel free to do that, but spare the rest of us who, by the way, are skeptical of your reasoning and conclusions, and the silliness of your arguments that the current temperature is somehow superior to what ever temperature the climate change may have in store for us....yes, animals and plants will have to adapt or die...droughts and famines may result, or not, but your views and ideas to 'prevent the problem', are worthless....but it is amusing to comment on the abject idiocy, thanks for the opportunity...

Answer 11

it hasent stoped think about the poor polor bears:(

Answer 12

But Dana 1998 was not the warmest year on record, it was 1934 the year of the great drought, the mid west dust bowl and the Oki excursion to California for work. 1998 was a whole couple of degrees cooler than 1998. So the period from 1931 to 1942 is going down in the record books as the hottest years in modern recorded history. But still not as warm as pervious warm periods like the short one that spiked about 1600 and collapsed for no known reason into the little ice age.

No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.

H.L.Mencken

Answer 13

Probably because they heard it once, liked it and don't really care to be corrected on it.

Those who deny global warming have a religious faith in it not happening or being natural or whatever it is that fits whatever debate they're in at the moment and that faith won't be shaken by evidence (those that could listen to the evidence have already accepted global warming, thus why all the skeptics have ended up accepting global warming).

Also a lot of arguments that have been refuted many times are still used despite that simply because they are effective against those who don't know why they are wrong, same thing you see with creationalists.

Then of course there are the denialists who've simply never been shown why it's wrong.

Answer 14

ITS BECAUSE THEY PROBABLY RUN OIL FACTORIES OR SOME KIND OF BUISNESS WHICH IS TIRED OF HAVING ENVIRONMENTALISTS PROTEST AGAINSDT THEM

THEY'RE WRONG, US "treehugers" KNOW WHAT HAPPENS.... IF THEY SAY IT STOPPED... THEN PEOPLE WILL BELIVE IT AN WONT TAKE OUR WORD ON IT

Answer 15

I would agree. But-- I don't think I ever said it had stopped. Only that their is a cooling trend which is evident in the charts during the past 10 years.

Then I usually pose the question-- "what if it continues for another 10 to 15 years?"

Answer 16

So let me get this straight, you're essentially trying to discount this information which is valid and legitimate because it doesn't fit your argument?  Sounds like you're following suit with the hockey stick theory folks.

Answer 17

So many thinking people believe that global warming stopped in 1998...

because it did!

Here is truth about global warming:

Global warming is one-half of the climatic cycle of warming and cooling.

The earth's mean temperature cycles around the freezing point of water.

This is a completely natural phenomenon which has been going on since there has been water on this planet. It is driven by the sun.

Our planet is currently emerging from a 'mini ice age', so is

becoming warmer and may return to the point at which Greenland is again usable as farmland (as it has been in recorded history).

As the polar ice caps decrease, the amount of fresh water mixing with oceanic water will slow and perhaps stop the thermohaline cycle (the oceanic heat 'conveyor' which, among other things, keeps the U.S. east coast warm).

When this cycle slows/stops, the planet will cool again and begin to enter another ice age.

Thermohaline cycle:

Warm water is less dense than cold water. One of the ocean currents runs North up the east coast of the U.S.

When this warm ocean water reaches the arctic ocean, it is cooled which makes it become more dense.  The now dense salt water drops to the sea floor and begins its return to the

southern loop of its cycle.

Fresh water from meltoff of the northern ice pack dilutes this sea water which makes it less dense.

The diluted, less dense water drops to the sea floor more slowly which slows the entire cycle.

If diluted enough, this circulation stops entirely.

When the circulation stops, then the planet will begin to cool and enter an ice age which will stop the meltoff.

As the salinity in the north Atlantic increases, the water will once again begin to sink to the sea floor and the cycle will restart and our planet will emerge from its ice age and enter another warm period.

That is happening now.  

It will change.

It's been happening for millions of years.

The worrisome and brutal predictions of drastic climate effects are based on computer models,

NOT CLIMATE HISTORY.

As you probably know, computer models are not the most reliable of sources, especially when used to 'predict' chaotic systems such as weather.

Global warming/cooling, AKA 'climate change':

Humans did not cause it.

Humans cannot stop it.

Answer 18

Some people just are not intreasted in playing their part.

Answer 19

Sorry, but not everyone blindly obeys the religion of Envirofundamentalism.  If we were so powerful that we could manipulate the earth's climate, Siberia would be the world's most fertile bread basket and people would be buying up land and building huge cities on the pristine wilderness of the Antartic continent (which has gorgeous landscapes hidden under hundreds of feet of ice).

And the poor emporer penguins wouldn't have to walk 30+ miles to the sea that used to be just a few feet away from their traditional nesting site.

You can scream "CONFESS!!! CONFESS!!!" all you want, and even force us to sit in the comfy chair, but you will never convert everyone to your religion.

Answer 20

Some know the argument is faulty but say it anyways. Others really have never looked at the graph. Still others have looked at the graph but don't know how to read it.

Answer 21

"even if there were no warming trend over the past 10 years, that wouldn't prove anything regarding global warming"

Yes, it would.     We're talking about a trend that has lasted only since the 1980s.      Ten years out of 30?    Yeah, that's important.  

The "warmest year on record" was 1998.    That was 10 years ago.   There have been other warm years since then, true enough.    But the "warmest year" was 10 years ago, going on 11.  

Now, is picking 1998 "cherry picking" versus picking 1995, or 1980?

Maybe.

But, so is picking 1980 versus 1940, or 1900 versus 1150, or 4,000 BC - - - all dates when CO2 levels were lower than at present.

Yes, there are other factors besides CO2 that drive the climate - you're right about that.   And we DO NOT KNOW what all of those factors are - if we did, then we could easily account for them in our prediction models, and still arrive at accurate predictions.

Answer 22

because in 1998

it was smooth sailing...

Answer 23

Dana,

As a believer, it might surprise you that global warming is a non-issue with a lot of people (other than keeping their kids out of the cult).  If you are going to be a successful scientist you MUST learn to think critically about your premises.  That means playing devil's advocate!  

You're starting from the idea that the human impact of greenhouse gases is more powerful than then the incredible forces of nature.  The very same forces are responsible for warming trends at the end of ice ages.  

This theory I cannot help but find laughable.  For this reason I ask you over and over, what % of climate variation is due to humans?  Surely nature must be responsible for at least 1% of the recent changes -- it was responsible for 100% in the past!

The truth is, you are unwilling to look at any scenario that doesn't fit your premise that human heavy industry (industrial capitalism) is guilty of destroying the planet.  

It must seem an extraordinary coincidence to you that the same European societies who for hundreds of years attempted to destroy industrial capitalism in the name of communism now continue in the name of global warming.  The political changes they propose in both cases increase centralized government control.

Have you ever heard of the phrase, "The G-d that failed"?  This is a reference to the lie that was communism, and the millions of lives it ruined.

Your children will hear the same phrase uttered about global warming.  Mark my words.

AC

Answer 24

You don't know when you are being lied to do you?

Answer 25

People are being VERY naive to the fact that global warming is a serious problem. People don't realize that it is a cycle that we're  ALL apart of, and that we all individually need to do our share to change the cycle, or at least slow it down. The severe weather changes that everyone everywhere is experiencing isn't just a conspiracy. People aren't taking this whole "Going Green" thing as seriously as they should. If everyone wants to be in denial and naive of what is REALLY going on, then we're all gonna suffer.

Answer 26

they are missinformed stopped 2 years earlier

Answer 27

Only because it hasn't gotten any warmer than it did in 1998.

Answer 28

The temperature measurements are old and garbage data. The older thermometers were not calibrated to the accuracy needed for this claim .

Answer 29

Proving yet again that casting a rhetorical net on Y!A results mainly in bycatch.

:-)

Answer 30

Denile and poor education.

I'm surprised how many questions on here I can use that answer for.