Why is Rags To Riches such a great contender in the Kentucky Oaks?

Question

I mean she really don't have that many wins on the card. Out of all the races she's done.

What makes her so great?

--melissa--

RIP Barbaro♥

Answer 1

1)  She's won 2 grade 1's in a row

2)  It's not just that she won, it's HOW she won.

She won the Las Virgenes from practically the middle of the racetrack, having to have run at least 10 and probably 20 more lengths than Baroness Thatcher.  

3)  Then she wins the SA Oaks going away.  The Oaks is WAY overrated in my opinion.  I mean, 2 year old stars like Cash Included couldn't even catch Silver Swallow, who at that point only had just broken her maiden in her previous race.  So pretty weak company in this one.

4)  There was some talk about running her in the SA Derby when Ravel got hurt, then pointing her towards the Kentucky Derby.  DRF (and a lot of writers) had her ranked as a valid KY Derby contender.  So there's a lot of people that think very highly of her, not just her connections.

5)  The Todd Pletcher factor.

6)  Maybe most importantly, there has been no talk of Magnificience running in the Oaks.  Pretty astounding to have 2 fillies with such crazy talent come out of SoCal at about the same time.  I think you'll see Magnificience vs. Rags to Riches some time later this year, possibly as early as the Acorn at Belmont.  And unless there's a Triple Crown contender amongst the Colts, you might hear more talk about the Acorn (if it's R2R vs. Mag.) than the Belmont Stakes.  

7)  The 3-yr old filly class is not all that deep (truly an understatement).  Dreaming of Anna has gone MIA since losing to Audacious Chloe on the turf.  Christmas Kid, winner of the Ashland, is skipping the Oaks.  What's that leave?  High Heels?  Octave? (who's now lost twice as a favorite in her last 2 preps, and hasn't won a race since her 2 year old summer)

The horses that ran 1-2-3 in the BCJuvFillies last year have won an underwhelming 1 Race this year combined (Cotton Blossom-FlaOaks, where the field could not have been weaker, the SA Oaks was a lot tougher, and still wasn't tough).

Also, say R2R destroys the Oaks field (I would have said unlikely, but now that I have looked closely, it is much more possible than you might think).  She's still triple crown nominated, and could take her shot in the shorter distance, smaller field that the Preakness would definitely offer.

Answer 2

There are quite a few reasons why she is such a big contender for the Oaks.  First off is her pedigree, she is by A.P. Indy who is one of the best sires out there (the best in my mind), out of Better Than Honour which makes her a 1/2 sister to Jazil, who won last years Belmont.  So you know with that kind of family she has the class and stamina to win the Oaks.  Second, she has done no wrong this year, it's very rare you see a filly win a stakes race, let alone a Grade 1 coming off her maiden victory, and she did it.  She then followed that up with another Grade 1 win in the Santa Anita Oaks, one of the most important Ky. Oaks preps.  I find too many people on this site put way too much emphasis on what a horses record was at 2.  If a horse gets a decent base at 2 there should be no problems, she had a few minor issues and didn't run until late in the year.  For the Derby and the Oaks you want a horse who is progressing at this type of year and getting ready to peak.  Not one who did in November or January.  As the distances stretch out you will see the horses who excelled in the summer and fall as 2 year olds aren't as effective and revert back to sprints, it's not because they arn't good anymore, they are just more effective at those distances.  You also see horses like Rags To Riches all of a sudden improving and getting better with each race, because they excel going longer.  The third reason is because Pletcher has her, so she gets added hype.  Personally I think she could be just as great with any capable trainer, great horses make trainers look great (take Barbaro as a prime example he made a 10% winning trainer look like a superstar).

To sum up this novel of an answer, all that being said I will be betting Octave (she will be a much better price) in the Oaks, she should be peaking on Oaks day and loves the track, with her 2nd in the Breeder Cup last year (one of the questions will be can Rags handle it).  Although I will be backing up my tickets with Rags To Riches, since she is the deserving favorite and if she takes another step forward could be long gone.