Why is it that the long shots in the final race for the triple crown have aways won it lately?

Question

Is it just me or has it been noticed by others? There will be a miracle horse that runs away with the first 2 races, and is the favorite in the last race, but yet, on a yearly basis, the long, long, long shots will win the race- In no other sport will the team that has the worst record , play the team with the best record and beat them in the super bowl, or the world series, or the NBA playoffs or the Hockey championships on a consistant yearly basis-could it be that the noble art of horse racing has become rigged? Or is it just me?

Answer 1

Betting favorites have won about 44% percent of the Belmont Stakes.  That's actually a higher than normal average for favorites to win.  In horse racing in general, favorites win from 28 - 34% of the time.  

When there's a Triple Crown on the line, people that know little about horse racing bet on the Belmont, and overwhelmingly bet on the Derby/Preakness winner. But the Derby/Preakness winner hasn't won the Belmont since 1978, so in reality it's unwise to bet on that horse.    

Alot of the people betting on the Derby/Preakness winner don't even try to handicap the Belmont by logical means.  They bet on the horse because the media said he was unbeatable or grandpa said he's "just like Secretariat".   Many bet on him just because he won the first two jewels, without realizing the Belmont is a much different race in terms of handicapping.  

They also ignore reports that, for instance, the "miracle horse" missed several days of training because of a hoof injury.  The horse therefore gets overbet and most of the other horses are ignored.  Then you have the perfect conditions for a long shot to win.  

Next time there's a Triple Crown on the line, bet on the long shots in the Belmont.  You'll realize the race isn't rigged when you're putting all that money in your wallet.

Answer 2

It's just you.

The Belmont has always been that way.  It's because there are very few horses with extreme distance pedigrees.  Also, some trainers like Nick Zito excel at training for the 1-1/2 mile distance.  Any horse he enters has a shot.

Also, in the case of Da'Tara, and others like him in the past, he didn't fare to well earlier in the 3 year old season, but did a lot of maturing out of the spotlight.  3 year olds can improve a long way in a hurry.  Just because he didn't hit the derby trail doesn't mean he wasn't a well intended horse, he just didn't mature fast enough.  So because the public hasn't been watching this horse in training, they expect him to be a lesser horse than the Derby and Preakness contenders.  And that simply is not the case.

Answer 3

That's horse racing !! There are no guarantees as to who will win the race !! Big Brown's trainer and owners hyped up Big Brown as if he was the greatest horse that ever was, well, they got a good healthy dose of reality on Belmont day !! With a lot of horses they reach a peak then regress. I think the toll of Big Brown's schedule finally caught up with him. I don't think you can make comparisons with horses and sports teams, you can't sit down with a horse and talk about how he is feeling. Big Brown was not 100% on Belmont day while Da Tara just put the pedal to the metal and ran the best race of his career.

Answer 4

GREED.