Why is the National Weather Service projecting Gustav will hit New Orleans?

Question

The storm is not even in the gulf yet but they are projecting a direrct hit on New Orleans. How do they know it will not turn east or west? Has a storm's ultimate path ever been predicted with any accuracy this early?

Answer 1

I hate to sound mean but this question is a bit dumb, but maybe just to me. They are experts, they know what they are talking about. Very rarely will they predict so early on where it is going. But since day 1 they have been saying Gustav will hit New Orleans. They are very confident, and they know this. They would not be saying it if it werent true, because usually they will give a general area. But they are very confident in it's projected path, so maybe u better listen.

Answer 2

sometimes they get it right. right now there is a high pressure system thats coming into the gulf and there is another high pressure system off the east coast of Florida. so the high pressure systems are directing Gustav. but they still can't 100% say that its going to hit New Orleans, because its not in the Gulf of Mexico yet. but it should hit any where from the Panhandle of Florida(Navarre) to Texas.  as soon as Gustav gets into the Gulf about 2 or 3 days before it hits any where on the coast they will have an close accurate landfall.

Answer 3

you are right they have no clue where it will exactly go once it gets in gulf they will have a better idea but people need to be prepared and i guess thats there way of saying HEY this could be a problem for n.o. and south ms so be prepared because with katrina we were not. so whether or not it hits us we will see but people still need to be prepared and know that there is a possibility

Answer 4

  Right now Hurricane Gustav seems to be on track for LA.  The track can still change since it is still several days away.  Right now it looks like it will become a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) when it goes through the hot gulf waters. Anyone in LA and along the coast should be prepared and follow the track and progress of Gustav and Hanna.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sht...

Answer 5

The weather service hurricane projected path maps are an average of the possibilities.  In this particular case, the "average" of the possibilities (from western Florida to southern Texas) happened to show a path headed directly for New Orleans for a while.

The projected path has shifted to the west and now shows the storm going ashore closer to the LA TX border.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/wide.ssf?h...

In reality, it is too soon to know where Gustav will make landfall, or how strong the storm will be when it does.  

Answer 6

They aren't saying that.  According to the track it can be anywhere from The Fl panhandle to Texas.  The most likely senerio is New Orleans, and yes the weather service do have many tools to track these storms.  New Orleans is the most vulnerable and it  takes days to evacuate that city, so they HAVE TO give them warning.  I just looked at some old footage from Katrina and cried, I hope that doesn't happen again.  Better to evacuate and be safe, even if they don't get hit.

Another note, If the storm is just west of New Orleans, then New Orleans will be getting the worst of it, (The east side).  Last time they got the west side of the storm.  

Answer 7

crud. i live in new orleans. and idc anymore. EVACUATE. and well be fine. but they r usually right. hey have many computers and ways of knowing

Answer 8

In order to know where a certain storm is going or is projected to go, one would have to look at the upper air mass, or the stirring currents. This is the guide the National Hurricane Center goes by.

Answer 9

Gustav is actually a Swedish name, not Russian.

Also Katrina is a variation of the Greek name, CATRIONA.  Katrina is also used in German and French.

No conspiracy here. Names of Hurricanes, or Tropical depressions as they begin off the coast of Africa, are alphabetical.  This year the National Weather Service has  used Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay and now Gustav.  Another tropical storm off the coast of Puerto Rico is called Hanna. If it reaches the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida coast it could become a hurricane, but the name won't change.

The National Weather Service in recent years has started to use names that are more global than American.

Finally, here is an interesting piece of information....the word Hurricane comes from the Spanish translation of Huracan, the Mayan weather god of wind, storm and fire.  He supposedly helped create humanity.  According to Mayan legend, he also produced a Great Flood, to punish humanity for angering the gods.

Answer 10

models many from satellites up in space consider wheir it will go. so far all or most of them seem to agree it will hit west just west of new orleans, but you cant stress enough that it is too early to tell. when they make a forecast they take all the possible enviormental conditions and factor its effect on the future of the storm things such as high pressure, wind shear, water temps, and the dryness of the air. if you live anywhere on the gulf coast you should be pre prepared, but lousianna, missisippi, and eastern texas should be ready just in case becuase one of tem will probably get hit.

heres a website showing different models and what they predict

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tra...

as you can see two or three on them agree they will hit in the same place that being the new orleans area, but some are predicting hits very far from new orleans.

also yes it is king of ironic they both have russian names and also katrinas anniversary of landfall is today and gutav is gaining some strength today  

Answer 11

ANY weather prediction is based on whatever scientific information they have, including other high/ low pressure areas, or other factors that they may have.  That is the ball game. It is incredible that they have what they now have, where years ago, they maybe had radar alone and could not predict anything.

You might want to use the national hurricane center page for any updates.  Each of them stress that things AT THIS MOMENT are estimated, but they are well aware it can change. As for NO getting hit again.. that is more of a fear, from the issues behind Katrina. If it protects anyone or causes safety measures that later become needless.. it is better for persons to be aware, just in case.

And per updates, the projection is shifting to closer to Texas. That projection can change.. and the storm can shift in the last 24 hrs before hitting land.