Why the Netherlands will Beat Brazil
Friday is shaping out to offer one of the most compelling matches of the 2010 World Cup, between the Netherlands and Brazil at Port Elizabeth. On the face of it, the Oranje have a better record, with three matches and three wins, but in usual fashion it’s Brazil who’s stolen most of spotlight. Kaka and company have played superb soccer; there is little denying that. The question is whether they will be able to utilize the same arsenal against the Netherlands, who have in their own way just as convincingly shown they’re here to win.
Let’s start with the facts so far: both teams are generally known for their offensive approaches, but here’s one reason we should expect something different this time around: defence is the word. This time around, both teams have only conceded two goals apiece so far, suggesting a different type of playing. At the same time this shouldn’t mean a lack of scoring—as games against Chile or others have suggested.
Brazil arose from a 2-1 slumber win against North Korea to make quick work of Ivory Coast, showcasing their specialized style of counter-attack football. Next it was Portugal, who were able to manage a 0-0 tie with the Selecao, and finally it’s been Chile, in a match that showed them at the peak of their game. The fact that Brazil was able to dismantle Chile 3-0, a team that ran the 2008 Euro champions Spain to the end of their measure, demonstrates their ongoing improvement and domination.
On the other hand, the Netherlands have dominated as well, beating Denmark, the Japanese and Cameroon, in more modest but no less definitive victories. They do not have the outright flair that the Brazilians have, but flair in itself never means much anyway, and what they can match is a tactical countering game of pace and movement. The players to watch here are Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder, both of whom put on a marvellous performance to defeat a Slovakian team that had just come off a stunning victory against Italy.
Brazil and the Netherlands have previously met three times at the World Cup, producing a win a piece, and a draw. Three games have produced nine goals, implying Friday’s match will be no different. Some more statistics make things even more nail-biting: Brazil is undefeated in 33 games under Dunga when Kaka and Robinho have played together (29 wins and 4 draws), whereas the Netherlands haven’t lost a match altogether in the last 23 times they’ve taken to the field.
So why will the Dutch win this match?
Simple. The Brazilians are favourites, but the Dutch have history to prove. In both 1974 and 1978 they reached the World Cup finals, but were unable to come away the winners. The Brazilian team on the other hand, have five World Cup championships, more than any other team. They are hungry, but they have shown that they can crack. Portugal was able to keep them to a draw, a huge indicator of their fallibility, and in the match against Ivory Coast, they were unable to handle a few refereeing calls. These are precise indicators.
What’s more is the Dutch thrive under conditions of physical football, a style the Brazilians have yet to run into. North Korea and other teams have attempted to match them with hard pressed defence, but no one has really been aggressive, and provoke the intimidation factor. Under this kind of pressure it is unclear whether Brazil will be able to keep composure, or crumble, but it is clear that the Dutch can deal with all Brazil puts on the field.
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