Why the drop off in Triple Crown winners?

Question

I have to make a class presentation, and I am considering this topic. There were 8 winners in a 29 yr period, but only 3 Triple Crown winners in the 58 years since (and none in the past 26yrs). I have some thoughts, but I would appreaciate any input that you folks make have as for the reason for the drop off.

Thank you.

Answer 1

There are any number of schools of thought as to why we haven't had a Triple Crown winner in 26 years. I think that it has a lot to do with the genetic factor- the thoroughbred as a breed has been overbred and inbred so much that the gene pool is shrinking, and the speed factors are going down- and this is combining with the fact that the horses are more fragile than they were 26 years ago to produce some negative results. Today's thoroughbreds are not like the horses of earlier generations- they are more prone to accidents and catastrophic breakdowns, and a lot of them just simply can't take the stress of racing and training. Economics have played a factor as well- this is one of the only sports I know where it is safer to retire an athlete after his first big win than it is to continue allowing him/her to continue competing. There is a lot of pressure on the breeders and owners of such horses to see a return on the investments that they make to get horses to race ( stud fees, vet care, foal care, and training are all VERY expensive) and this has resulted in horses being started under saddle and raced at far too young an age. A 2 year old horse is like a 6 year old child, at least in terms of it's bone strength- and the bones are soft and will break easily under extreme stress. But the need to see and show a profit in this sport means that young horses MUST be raced early, and many of them break down or are injured and never even make it past their 2 year old season. I sometimes wonder how many potential Triple Crown winners have we missed out on, simply because they were injured as 2 year olds or as yearlings? Probably quite a few. I also wonder what would happen if the flat racing industry decided to take a cue from the steeplechase industry and raise the minimum age for racing to 4 or 5, and give the babies a chance to grow up. I think that there would be a resurgence of Triple Crown winners if this were the case- and I also think that we would see an end to the kinds of tragedies which keep hitting racing like the plague. Barbaro and Pine Island were just 2 of the latest casualties in a saga which has been going on for decades, and will continue until the people who run this sport finally get the message and stop running these baby horses when they clearly can't take the stress. If we want to end the carnage, we need to listen to what these animals are telling us. That is just my thinking on this topic. Good luck with your project.

Answer 2

By the same token why were there three in the 1970's after a period of 25 years with none?  I think it's just random chance.

Answer 3

It just seems like it runs in streaks  and yes i wish there would be more triple crown winners, the last one was when i was in high school.wow has it been that long..i don't see it hapening anytime soon because the fields has gotten bigger and the horses has better training than years ago

Answer 4

I personally don't think we will ever have another triple crown winner and i think barbaro proves why. We are making the surfaces hard and faster at the same time we are breeding weaker horses. Horses like charsmatic used to have to be destoryed now we fix them and send them to stud where they can pass on weaker legs to future generations of horses. Barbaro shows how far we've come to being able to put horses back together. Yes the horses of today have the heart but we are training and rasing them weaker for harder tracks. I think we'll continue to see just what we have seen, many who come so close only to breakdown or falter at the finish.

The racing farm tradition is over, u don't see Calumet farms today, the business is just too risky and expensive.  All our best horses are getting sent to the Calumet's of Arabia and Ireland and Japan.  What happened to the english thoughbred of the late 1800's is now happening to the American Throughbred.  All the best bloodlines and best young horses are being bought and raced overseas.

Answer 5

To win the Triple Crown, a Thoroughbred has to be at the absolute top of his/her game for a very long period of time.  This is because nowadays to even get into the Derby, a horse has to qualify on Graded Stakes earnings, which means either being a very good two-year-old or racing hard and winning early in the three-year-old season.

This is tough.  It's tough on the horse and tough on the trainer to get the horse ready.  And of course during the run for the Triple Crown, a horse has to win three of the most talent-packed races of the year, run over a period from the first week of May to the second week of June, at distances longer than they've ever run before, at three different tracks.

That's an incredible feat.  Especially given that the Derby winner, the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown, has to face fresh challengers in each of the next two races.

Wow.

When you break it out like that, the wonder isn't that we haven't had more Triple Crown winners, the wonder is that we've had any at all.  

Some of the things that make it tougher now than it used to be:

*  American Thoroughbreds have been increasingly bred more for brilliance at distances of a mile rather than stamina to go a mile and a quarter.  The archetype now of the hot stallion prospect is the horse that won a Group I or Grade I stakes at 2, showed brilliant speed up to a mile and an eighth at three, and could win or be up close in a weight-for-age stakes against older horses at 1-1/8 miles.  Most breeders, if they had to choose, would rather book their mares to a horse that was a stakes winner at two but never won beyond 1-1/8 miles at three, rather than breeding to a horse that didn't start at 2 but won the Belmont at 3 and won or placed in races at 1-1/4 miles later in the year against older horses.

*  American horses have been bred for unsoundness.  The most dominant sire lines today, the Storm Cat, Danzig and Mr. Prospector lines, are not lines highly regarded for soundness.  The horses descending from these sires are not noted for correctness and longevity at the races.  But they tend to be brilliant while they last, however short a time that might be.

*  The way we produce horses today tends to promote unsoundness.  Very few people breed to race their own nowadays.  Most horses are bred for sale on the commercial market.  This means having regard more for how a pedigree looks on a catalogue page than considering the sire and dam as physical individuals.  It also means, in the sales preparation that is done, that it is possible for a horse to have been given steroids in preparation for sale as a yearling and again in preparation for sale as two-year-old in training.  This is not a nurturing scheme that promotes soundness or longevity at the races.

*  The Triple Crown means less and less in downselecting colts to go on and become sires.  If a horse isn't ready for the rigors of the Triple Crown, it is still possible for him to acquire "sire" credentials by beating the winners of the Triple Crown races, if they are still in training, in fall weight-for-age stakes and winning a Breeder's Cup race in November.  Given that, there's less of an incentive to push a top-class colt to get ready for the Triple Crown if he's immature or has had physical setbacks early in the year.

We've had some close runs at the Triple Crown over the past few years, and I think it's only a matter of time before we have another Triple Crown winner.  But I think the pursuit of the Crown is a lot different than it used to be.

Answer 6

James H, if we are talking about the English Triple Crown then the answer is that because the owners/breeders do NOT want to risk a horse getting beat say having won 2 out of the 3 races that make up the Triple Crown they simply prefer to "place" the horse carefully in races where they know almost certainly that he can win. This increases the total prize money a horse accrues in its career and subsequently increases the breeding/bloodstock fees when he retires at stud.

Answer 7

In my mind the biggest factor is racing luck, in the past 10 years there have been many close calls, Real Quiet missing by a nose and Silver Charm missing out in a photo were the closest, with Afleet Alex missing by a length.  So many factors during the race could have turned a close call into a Triple Crown winner.  There are also many more horses bred these days then way back when, therefore more competition.  Everybody above has some valid points and there really isn't 1 true factor why there hasn't been one lately (I still say its luck).  However if you're going to buy the whole 2 year olds are being forced to race and that's why there hasn't been one, the poster must have forgotten that Secretariat won 5 Stakes races at 2, Affirmed won 6 Stakes races at 2 and Seattle Slew won 1 Stakes race at 2, they all had more starts than that at 2 as well.  Horses in the past started way more often than horses do at 2 these days, so that's one reason I just don't buy.  So the last 3 Triple Crown winners proved you need to have a solid base at 2 if you're going to have a shot at the triple crown.

Answer 8

its just too much of a grind to get the horses to maximize performances thru the 5 or 6 weeks that make up the triple crown...more horses run in the derby knowing a win in that race alone will get them paid at the breeding shed...after which most owners or trainers know what kind of horse they have and whether or not they will be running in the remainder of the triple crown races...the fields usually thin out there, also there is such a premium on speed breeding vs. stamina (breeding fans will note that more than 70 percent of the successful therefore high priced breeds start about 5 generations back at nearco where that splits it goes to bold ruler therefore the seattle slew and secretariat lines , where it splits at nasua it goes to the mr prospector line, where it splits at neartic it goes to the northern dancer line, and where they are bred back in ((storm cat for example is a northern dancer grandson out of a seattle slew mare(grandson also) which is considered the top breeding available as evidenced by his 500k stud fee, then his son Giants Causeway who is also fashionable at about 300k a pop, they are considered bred well for all surfaces and all distances))  is where all of the presently 'well bred' horses have their roots, but they are bred speed, speed , speed) that few of the real stayers or closers dont get good until late in their three year old year or their forth or so...too late for the 'classics' ...fortunately for us racing fans there are the big international series (the world cup and the breeders cup being the most noted) of races with big purses that draw horses from all over the world, in all categories, to determine the best...the triple crown is just a grind for a horse that young...

Answer 9

I think silver charm should have won!! i love gary stevens but i also love kent desormeaux!! (i love cajun jockeys!!) but i don't know about this years Derby contenders!!!!!

Answer 10

The basic reason is the time in between the three races and the wear and tear of racehorses in general.

The Triple Crown in thoroughbred horse racing is spanned over a period of only 5 weeks. Two from the time the Kentucky Derby is run, till the Preakness,

and then 3 weeks till the Belmont.

The wear and tear of racehorses - horses breaking down; consider Barbaro

and Smarty Jones.

Everything in life changes, but the format of the Triple Crown hasn't changed since 1873.

It will be quite a long time until we see another Affirmed and Steve Cauthen.

Answer 11

It is a very tough series to win and there was a 25 year gap between Citation and Secretariat.  Then there were three winners from 1973 to 1978.  Real Quiet and Silver Charm were beat in photos in the Belmont  so with a little luck there could of been two in a row.  A couple of others, Point Given and Smarty Jones had bad luck or bad trips that cost them.  Charismatic was injured running third in the Belmont.  If it was and easy thing to do it would not be such a huge accomplishment.

The field now are larger but usually only in the Derby. Trainers now are less willing to run their horses in three tough races in five weeks.  Another horse will come along with the talent and luck to win all three.  Till then it keeps us all coming back for more.