Why wait for the Pyrénées?
Everybody seems to agree that we can expect to see the outcome of the 2010 Tour de France in the Pyrénées, especially in the two climbs of the Col du Tourmalet, where only the best of the climbers can hope to anything beyond just surviving it.
The Tourmalet was first climbed in 1910, and 100 years later it will be climbed twice. It was the first high-altitude summit to appear in the Tour de France, and it was so daunting that many expected competitors didn’t bother to enter the race. When French cyclist Octave Lapize became the first rider to reach the summit, he was hardly happy about it.
“What's going on is that you are criminals! Do you hear?” said Lapize to a journalist after the climb. “Tell Desgrange from me: you cannot ask human beings to do a thing like this'!”
Everybody believes Pyrenees will give them a chance
But now all the favourites seem to be looking forward to it. Lance Armstrong said he may come back in the Pyrénées. Alberto Contador said he’ll take Andy Schleck there. Schleck said he’s gain the all-important lead on Contador there, which he’ll need if he means to survive the stage 19 time trial.
So, why wait? Laurent Jalabert nearly defeated 5-time Tour winner Miguel Induráin at the same summit finish of this year’s stage 12. Greg LeMond closed the gap on his 1990 Tour opponent Claudio Chiappucci in the Massif Central, before the Pyrénées, and won the Tour.
Stages 12 and 13 of this year’s edition are relatively flat and offer a good opportunity for a breakaway group. There is no reason for a repeat of Wednesday’s show of indifference to the breakaway, just because it didn’t contain any GC contenders.
"We were happy to let the breakaway go,” said Schleck. “That allowed us to ride at an easy pace for most of the day."
The team leaders again sat back in stage 11, leaving the sprinters in charge of the race. With three days to go before the mountains, will the leaders continue with formulaic tactics and ignore the opportunity to shake things up? The hilly stage 12 can offer a good chance for team work, where the sprinters won’t have to jump ahead like in the flat stage 13 or fall behind like in the mountain stage 14. With more men to help the leaders close the gap on a breakaway and hold back the chase group, Saxo Bank or Astana could change the outcome of the race.
Laurent Jalabert achieved just that with Team Once in the 12th stage of the 1995 Tour. The leader started the stage in the green jersey, nearly 9 minutes behind the leader. The GCs didn’t consider him a threat, so he was allowed to move in unnoticed when the peloton split on the first climb and Induráin, in the yellow jersey, had only two teammates with him. Jalabert took the lead with two teammates, while the rest of Team Once stayed behind to keep the pressure on Induráin.
Jalabert’s lead eventually topped 10 minutes, and was still 6 minutes ahead at the finish line, ultimately finishing the Tour with the green jersey, in 4th overall. A similar thing could be orchestrated by a strong team in this year’s stage 12.
Rabobank, RadioShack, Liquigas and Sky all have two contenders within 10 minutes of the leaders. An early attack could split the peloton and reshape the race over the course of 210.5km and five categorized climbs. If not, there may not be another chance to shake Schleck and Contador from the top two spots, and to turn this race into more than a one-on-one.
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