Why was Rachel Alexandra beaten?
A trainer with enough years of experience to qualify for every long-service award going once said: “I’ve only heard of three racing certainties – and two of them got beaten.”
For a mile of the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga, Rachel Alexandra looked from the grandstand as though she could be that exception, except that there were still two furlongs left to run. Which was about half a furlong more than she could handle as she was beaten a length by Persistently.
In the hour after the race connections were left with the time-honoured task of sifting through the wreckage. First up was Rachel Alexandra’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, who said: “She isn’t exactly where she was last year and hopefully she can get back there.”
The reference to “there” - as opposed to the here and now of three defeats in five starts in 2010 – was Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year season when an eight-race clean sweep took in the Preakness, Haskell Invitational and Woodward Stakes.
“That was what you were hoping to see today,” Asmussen continued. “Then she got ran down late for whatever reason. I’m very disappointed that she lost but I’m always very happy with Rachel. It hurts to lose and you’re disappointed for it. But if that’s the case just think how happy she’s made you and all the things that she has done for us.”
She has done plenty for jockey Calvin Borel and he said: “The last eighth of a mile she didn’t finish. We must have come home in 14 [seconds]. That’s not her. I was calm, cool, collected ‘til the quarter pole.”
So what went wrong and where does it leave one of the queens of American racing?
The first question is that of stamina, which can often be as subjective as whether a horse wins a race or not and breeding alone cannot always be a definitive guide. Aidan O’Brien chose not to try Cape Blanco over 12 furlongs at Epsom in the Derby because he was worried about stamina for a colt whose dam had never won beyond five furlongs. But Cape Blanco then proved that 12 furlongs was not beyond his physical reserves when he won the Irish Derby at the Curragh.
Rachel Alexandra’s breeding – by Medaglia d’Oro out of the Roar mare Lotta Kim – looks solid enough so the next consideration is tactics. Borel showed his hand from the gates with a determination to dominate but was not granted an uncontested lead as John Velazquez was pressing just a half-length away on Life At Ten. The time for the Personal Ensign, run on a fast track, was slower than the Travers Stakes the previous day (2 minutes 4.49 seconds as opposed to 2 minutes 3.28 seconds).
This could have been the result of a suicidal early pace but Rachel Alexandra’s early fractions of 23.66 and 47.73 seconds were actually slightly slower than the 22.43 and 47.25 seconds of the Travers, where the three-year-old colts were carrying 4lbs more than Rachel Alexandra.
The rest of the sectional times do not suggest that the pace was that heavily loaded in the first three-quarters of a mile and Persistently, who may yet prove herself to be a star on the rise rather than a one-race wonder, was receiving a 6lb weight allowance.
It is the weight of expectation that has surrounded Rachel Alexandra that may be just too much of a burden. She has never reached the same level of form as she sowed last year and it could be a simple case that her victory in the Woodward - with that punishing last furlong as she held on to beat Macho Again by a head - came at a price that has been exacted through a diminution of her brilliance.
So what next? The basic options are retirement or to continue racing and Jess Jackson, the majority owner, and Asmussen have said that no decision will be made until Rachel Alexandra has returned to training in about a fortnight. “We’re just going to see how she comes out of the race,” Asmussen said to the Thoroughbred Times.
“We’ll definitely wait until she goes back to the track, and then we will speak again. She’ll probably go back to the track on Wednesday morning. We’ll wait to take her back to the track and then discuss where she is. We’re very disappointed with yesterday’s results.”
Her next start could be the Grade One Beldame Stakes, at Belmont Park on October 2nd, leaving five weeks until the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, where she could take in either the Ladies Classic or go for broke in the Classic itself.
If immediate retirement is ruled out perhaps it might be time to find a career-ending victory rather than putting her in competition that the filly may no longer be capable of handling.
After her long service she deserves nothing less.
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