Will Big Brown win from the outside rail in the Kentucky Derby?

Question

Will Big Brown win from the outside rail in the Kentucky Derby?

Answer 1

Anything is possible!!

Answer 2

Yeah I think so...thats who Im going for even though he has alot going against him...#20 post, tender front feet. He can do it, besides he is a speed horse they have him listed as the fastest horse running

1) Big Brown

2) Eight Belles

3) Cool Coal Man

Answer 3

From#20 post; Its been done once in 134 years, in the 1920's

He's only got three preps going into the derby, and there's lots of speed inside of him. SURE HE CAN WIN!

EVEYBODY IN THIS DERBY HAS A CHANCE!!!!!!

EVEN THE FILLY "EIGHT BELLES"

I LIKE THE (4-5-6-10-20) FOR THE SUPER BOX AND TRI BOX.

jm

Answer 4

i think its a 3/8 mile to first turn so he needs to get there quickly or he will be too wide. if he does, he needs to really slow things down along backstretch or he will come up empty in the stretch. the best trip will be a stalking trip from along the rail as things will get spread out along backstretch. His odds will be too short to overcome all things against him.

Answer 5

BIg Brown will breeze rom the outside.

Answer 6

Moss still has him pegged at #1. I think he's got as good a shot as most of the other horses in the field (unfortunately that isn't so good).

Edit: Yeah, I was kind of ticked myself by Dutrow's cocky decision. Pick the #18 next time and save yourself the trouble.

Answer 7

No, he won't win from Post 20.  And wouldn't have won from any other post either.

Answer 8

i think so

Answer 9

Yeah, he will win alright.

It bothers me how so many of you on here are not even giving him a chance.

I love that horse and I believe he can do it.

Ponygirl is right, ANYTHING is possible!

Answer 10

Although there's no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing, I'm going to say no, he's not winning from PP20.

It's only been done once and that was before starting gates were invented, so it's never been done out of a starting gate.  

There's several speed horses he's going to be fighting on the front end and coming from the far outside puts him at a big disadvantage in that scenario.  If he gets stuck behind the front end, then he gets a rough trip -- the other jockeys will be gunning for him.

Answer 11

well, anything is possible, but the horse would need tons of luck.  He either has to break really fast and run past all the horses to get to the rail, so he'll run the first quarter in 21... or he'll have to gradually slide over to the rail and he's going to end up 5 wide on the first turn.  If this was the florida derby and it didn't have any pace like that race did, then he'd be able to make the easy lead and get his perfect trip that he's had in all of his other races.  That's just not going to happen in a 20 horse field against the best 3 year olds in the country.  He's had some wins by big margins but against who?  (1) maidens (2) allowance horses and (3) a weak field of stakes horses.  It's like Hank Goldberg said on the Triple Crown Special today...  by the time the Florida Derby was run, the top Florida horses had already shipped north.  If any of the other contenders had raced in the 3 races that Big Brown had, they would be undefeated too... it's not hard to be undefeated when you haven't tried in a good stakes field.  Big Brown faces a much tougher race than he has ever had before.  Dutrow is going to feel pretty stupid about trash talking all week and choosing the 20 hole.  They act like Big Brown is the best thing to ever walk on 4 legs... the way they're acting, they deserve to get beat.