Will Big Brown win the Kentucky Derby?

Question

Will Big Brown win the Kentucky Derby?

Answer 1

I believe he can do it.

I really like Big Brown, he has the speed for the Derby and is just as good as every other horse in that field, one of the best actually.

Yeah, he has won all 3/3 races, but that doesn't mean he can't make it 4/4. It's been done before it can be done again!

So just because he might not have the "experience" of all the others; he sure has a lot more speed and he has big strides, along with that extra power at the end of the race.

Big Brown is my favorite for the Derby no matter what. I have that special connection with him and I really think he can do it.

Now I know I was like this with Curlin last year and he didn't win the Derby but uhmm... look at him now!

But then there is that factor with Brown's feet... that I am a little worried about. I think that IF he does end up not getting win, place, or show it will be because of his feet. Nothing more. You may give me a thumbs down, but go ahead. I don't really care because what I said is all from MY prospective.

So I believe that YES! Big Brown WILL WIN Kentucky Derby 134! =)

♥melissa.

Answer 2

It's hard to say. He's the only horse in the field that has any sort of class, not to mention he can rate (unlike Pyro or War Pass, who must run from the way back and the way front respectively), and has the lowest dosage index and best breeding of any horse in the field. His Beyer figures are a notch above ever other horse in the field (except possibly Gayego). Also, it is unwise to base a Derby decision solely off of experience - considering that all of the more experienced horses cannot run at the same level (last I checked, ability is more important than experience).

If we look at the competition, the choice becomes clear.

Colonel John - A fine horse, to be sure, but not a top competitor. Why? Several reasons: One, he's hardly tested on dirt; all of his big wins have been on polytrack. Two, his best race was in the SA Derby - and although the time may have looked fast, the track was also speedy, which meant he settled for a Beyer figure of 95, which is rather low. He's a threat, but not a big one.

Pyro - There's some big controversy on this one. I never thought he had it in him. He hardly has a distance pedigree, despite his running style, although it does appear as if he can take the distance. The Keeneland performance really does it in for me. A horse, no matter the surface, should be able to compete with the rest of the field if that horse is any good. There were horses ahead of Pyro who were equally upset with the polytrack, yet they finished ahead. Furthermore, although his Rebel is widely touted, none of his races at three have a beyer figure of even 99.

Monba was somewhat impressive, but has lost before against not so great company and will lose again.

And so I come to Gayego - he's underrated in my opinion, especially in light of his two huge races. True, one of them was at 6.5 furlongs, but the other was at 9 - which means he should be able to go the distance. He seems more of a wild card though - I'm not sure where to place him.

War Pass - Not cutting it. Not designed for distance, and clearly not able to handle rating. He ran huge in the BC, but since then he hasn't done anything worthy of note.

I would not consider other horses.

Remember, though - there's always chance involved. A horse can overcome its shortfalls or succumb to them on Derby day. Pick wisely.

Edit: I have to say this because these generalizations keep ticking me off. Big Brown is not a front runner. Read the articles again, and you'll find that Desormeaux had to go to the front. I wouldn't be surprised to Big Brown fourth or fifth on the pack.

Also, Tomcito has zero chance for the Derby - nothing indicates any sort of possibility whatsoever. He performed awfully in the Florida Derby.

Let me explain the above further: I do not believe a horse that gives a time of 1:50:2 on a very fast track for 1 and 1/8 miles is in contention for the Derby.

Another Edit: I do think that he's got a great shot for place or show, though.

One thing I think we can agree on is that unless a horse like Big Brown turns out to be spectacular, we have a pretty weak crop on our hands. One of the reasons I'm backing him is that he's the only chance this year for a good three year old. It also seems that we'll have to wait some more until the next Triple Crown winner comes along.

Answer 3

Big Brown is certainly an impressive horse and his win in Florida made me a believer that he will definitely be in the money on Derby Day.  I also expect him to be the morning line and bettor's favorite which used to be a curse against the possibility of a win until a couple of years ago.  I actually live in Louisville, Ky so I have seen every derby since birth and have become more accustomed to see the horses than can hang in on the upper end of the field and still have energy for the explosive stretch run to win.  Big Brown proved he can not only set the pace but also drive down the stretch thus I expect it to be him, Colonel John or Pyro and maybe even Monbo.

There are a few other talented closers included amongst the top contenders but a race is very different when you need to pass 19 horses instead of 9 (sorry Tomicito)!  And amongst the pace setters like War Pass, I just don't think they will be able to last the long stretch on a mile and a quarter at Churchill against such a talented field the Derby brings..

Answer 4

The Derby will be the test of it.

Answer 5

I myself am rooting for Pyro. But who knows. Back in 2005 I could have sworn Afleet alex was gonna get it. On paper he was deifnately th best but down the strech came Giacamo......  In all the day really depends on the horse, not bloodlines , not past records but how the horse is feeling and running anfd whether it is "his day" Just like last year it was Street Sense's day to shine in the Derby 3 weeks later it was Curlin's turn. I cn't wait to find out who it will be though. Maybe Big brown it maybe Pyro then it could also be the horse that ges off at 70-1... we won't know till derby day gets there. Either way I'll be there in the infield cheering the horses on. See you there!

Answer 6

it was gayego who won the derby

Answer 7

I just want to say this before I say anything:

It's all in God's hands and no matter how good a horse may seem or how good they train God has already got a horse picked to win the Kentucky Derby and the many Kentucky Derbys ahead.

Big Brown is no doubt a fantastic horse. He has shown a lot of talent and class. But there is one thing you can't ignore and that is that he has had only 3 lifetime starts. The last horse to win with 3 lifetime starts was the filly Regret in 1915. Can you possibly recall a colt named Curlin who was running in the Derby last year? You probably can. Everyone was saying how amazing this horse was and he was undefeated and had so much talent. He finished 3rd in the Derby. And of course Curlin went on to do phenomanal things.

Big Brown, I believe, is a little overrated. A thing about him is that nothing seems to bother him. For example, did you see photos of the Florida Derby of Big Brown? Notice the bit. One side is like going out and another side is like pushing in on his mouth. That had to be uncomfortable. Another thing is his feet. He had problems but it didn't bother him for long.

So overall Big Brown is a talented colt. Kentucky Derby, though, (in my opinion) will be a little too much. But if he will be able to overcome possibly a lot of traffic, 1 1/4 distance, boxed in on the rail, get a spot near or on the lead then he could be a HUGE threat.

My pick has been and will be till Derby day Pyro. Pyro is amazing. He may have some doubts on him and all but he, to me, has everything to a Derby winner. GO PYRO!!!

Another two horses I like may be two dark horses in the race and those horses are Court Vision and Monba. Both like Churchill and have shown undeniable talent and could be forces to be reckoned with.

Derby Top 5:

1.Pyro

2.Court Vision

3.Monba

4.Big Brown

5.Colonel John

Answer 8

first of all, you get a star for inspiring such a debate!

second, there seems to be a very strong, very common misperception that Big Brown absolutely must go to the lead and he has no ability to rate off the pace.  That's actually very funny because it's pretty clear that these people are basing their opinions off of seeing the horse run a single race.  In Big Brown's first start this year he ran in an allowance and he did not take the lead until the final turn... he let Hedgefund Investor have a length lead!  That doesn't seem to me to be a horse that cannot rate off the pace.  Here's the video if you don't believe me or if you're just interested in seeing the race for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L-vrpMD8...

third, I'd like to weigh in on the Tomcito debate...

. . . I too like Tomcito.  There's a bit of mystery with this horse but also a little bit of certainty.  We have so many arguments in Derby preps about what horses can handle dirt as opposed to synthetics and about what horses can handle the mile and a quarter.  With Tomcito, we know he can do both!  The horse absolutely has the power to go 10 furlongs... he's already won over a mile and a half!... as a 2 year old!!  How cool is that??  Ok, so it was against horses who weren't as talented as what he is going to face in this country.  But at least we know he has the distance.

. . . How can you say that he raced horribly in the Florida Derby?  Take a minute to consider his accomplishment... it was his first race of the year, his first race in this country, his first try against talented American horses and all of that was in a Grade I stakes!  And he finished 3rd... it was a far back 3rd after Big Brown's run away, but it was 3rd nonetheless.  And watch him run around the turn and into the stretch... he's making a strong closing run.  He didn't leave quite early enough to make it to the front (since he came from so far off the pace), but he's closing with every stride and makes a strong finish.  It's true that he didn't beat anyone who was incredibly spectacular, but the horses in that field are all Kentucky Derby contenders.  He finishes a comfortable 3 lengths in front of Hey Byrn who came back for a win in the (weakest-ever version of the) Holy Bull to renew his Derby chances.  Tomcito beat Elysium Fields who did have an awful race that day but looked like the real deal when he came back at Cool Coal Man in the final strides of the Fountain of Youth.  And Face the Cat, Da'Tara, and Fierce Wind were all stakes horses.  I just think that calling Tomcito's race terrible is quite an overstatement.

. . . As for Tomcito's chances for the Derby... first of all he has big earnings problems... he has won a lot of races, but his earnings don't transfer.  Second, he will have his work cut out for him to win the Derby.  He has a lack of 3 year old seasoning, but that could be good since it will make him a fresher horse for the Derby.  The bigger problem is that he hasn't faced the top 3 year old talent, but he is racing at Keeneland this weekend in the Coolmore Lexington so he'll have a good prep and we'll see how he does.  According to an NTRA article, his connections worked him out of the gate (to encourage him to be closer to the pace than in the Florida Derby) and he went 3 furlongs in 34 and 3!  Then he went another furlong to finish up over 4 fulongs in 46 and 4.  I think he has some talent there.  I don't know that he'll win the Derby, but look for him to finish in the money and do not leave him out of your exotics.  He and his connections didn't travel all this way to struggle through some cheap un-graded stakes... he has the talent.

Now, for Big Brown... Do I think he'll win the Derby?  no.

. . .  I'm commonly reprimanded for making the experience argument but I don't care.  I made the experience argument last year about Curlin and I faced some dissent then, but I was right.  I heard one of the ESPN analysts (maybe Randy Moss) say that they don't believe that experience is that important... i think it was specifically something along the lines of "If I'm reaching for something as far as lack of 2 year old seasoning, then I'm really stretching to make a case against the horse."  The point was that if the horse has the talent and has raced well and does things right, then it shouldn't matter how much experience it has.  As nice as that sounds in theory, it just doesn't stand up to practice.  You can't prepare and condition a horse without races.  

. . . A horse learns something in every race.  A horse needs "firsts" (first time getting dirt kicked in his face, first race with a troubled trip, first race being floated wide around the turns, first race with an incredibly fast/slow pace, first race against the top of the class's talent).  Big Brown has had an easy race and win in every race.  He's never had a bad break, never been wide, never had a horse look him in the eye and match his stride in the stretch... it's those kinds of experiences that prepare you for the Derby more than easy wins by big margins.  Curlin last year had never faced a talented field (no horse from those spring Oaklawn races went on to do anything impressive), never dealt with a big field, never had a bad break, never was forced wide or dealt with traffic.  Consequently, Curlin was not prepared for the Derby despite the fact that he has turned into quite a talented horse.  

. . . Big Brown faces the same problems this year.  Of course he could get a good trip in the Derby and get the rail and be on/near the lead and go on to win easily... but the fact of the Derby is that such good trips are very elusive.

. . . Statistically, historically, Big Brown cannot win the Derby.  Only 3 starts?  Only 1 graded stakes win?  Only 1 stakes attempt?  All of these are big red flags for a horse about to face 20 of the best horses in the country in only his 4th start of his career, especially when he hasn't ever faced that kind of talent before.

Answer 9

nope.  He might be good for third in a tractor bet.  :)

Answer 10

Big Brown may hit the board.  He has very good distance breeding, however he is a very bullish young colt.  There is an excellent article where they asked Rick Dutrow about him.  He tried once to work him with Diamond Stripes, who went over to Dubai to win on World Cup Day; however, Dutrow's purpose was to let him rate behind a horse to school him...Big Brown was so head strong and competitive he shot out of the gate and would never let Diamond Stripes pass him, despite be restrained.  Desormeaux will have his hands full trying to reign him in around the first turn and backstretch facing War Pass, Recapturetheglory, and Gayego...simply put there is far to much speed in this race.

Take Tomcito on top of Colonel John, Pyro, Court Vision, Big Brown, and enjoy your new found riches.

Answer 11

I do not think Big Brown will win the Derby. Very lightly raced. he obviously needs to be on the lead, which there will be plenty of other horses who race in the same style. But everything could change with the post position. If Big Brown draws the inside & all the other "speed" horse draw outside of him, then Big Brown could have a very easy & uncontested lead.

My picks as of right now are (in no particular order) Court Vision, Pyro, Smooth Air, Z Fortune & I'm still not quite giving up on Blackbery Road.

Answer 12

no...he has to learn how to pace and kick for the finish! kty derby is a mile and a quarter...