Will Rafa win Hamburg and keep his ranking secure ?

Question

I sure hope he does :)

Answer 1

I wouldn't say that Djokovic's 2 years of continuous improvement and ability to win not only Grand Slams, but titles - as well as ability to beat any player, is luck. There is no doubt that with his current form that he is a future No. 1. especially at his age.

So with the Nadal situation and his ranking. Currently the top 3 rankings are:

1 Federer 6825

2 Nadal. 5435

3 Djokovic    5125

So Djokovic needs to score 310 points more than Nadal to overtake him, or more accurately, he needs a 310 point differential between himself and Nadal after the tournament.

Last year at this tournament Nadal lost in the finals while Djokovic lost in the quarter finals. This means Nadal has to protect 350 points while Djokovic only has 125 to protect.

The reason why Djokovic is closing the gap so quickly to Nadal is because by this point last year, Nadal had won 3 of the 4 Masters Series tournaments, and finished in the quarter finals of the Australian Open and the remaining Masters Series tournament. This result racked up an impressive level of points which due to his injury and poor form so far this year has been difficult to defend.

By the same token, Djokovic has won the only Grand Slam so far this year, and won 2 of the 4 masters series tournaments, so he is on a hot streak.

So if we take away last years Hamburg results (Nadal got 350 points for being in the final, Djokovic 125 points for the quarter final) then Novak is on 5000 points before this tournament and Nadal on 5085. That means that Djokovic needs to score 85 points more than Nadal at the tournament to take the #2 ranking.

The points are allocated as follows:

Champion: 500 points

Finalist: 350 points

Semi: 225 points

Quarters: 125 points

Round 16: 75 points

Round 32: 35 points

To take the #2 spot, Djokovic (for each possible Nadal result) would have to:

* Reach the quarter final (win first two matches) if Nadal loses his first match (round of 32 - the top 10 players have a bye in the first round (round of 64)). In this case Nadal would lose 315 points in his ranking while Djokovic would remain on the same point count)

* If Nadal loses in his second match (round of 16) he would drop 275 points, meaning Djokovic needs to make up 35 points, which he can do if he reaches the semi-final

* If Nadal loses in the quarter finals, he would drop 225 points, so Djokovic would need to make up 85 points over his quarter final finish last year, which he can again do by finishing in the semi-finals

* If Nadal loses in the semi-finals, he would drop 125 points. In that case if Djokovic makes the finals he would be 40 points ahead of Nadal after the tournament.

* If Nadal makes the finals, Djokovic would have to win the tournament to overtake him.

So if Djokovic wins the tournament, he takes the #2 ranking from Nadal. If Nadal goes out early in the first couple of matches, then Djokovic would only need to make the top 4.

This demonstrates why it is so difficult to maintain a ranking, and why prior to the Federer/Nadal era you would see the rankings move around so often. It is very hard for a player to defend the titles they won the previous year and thus preserve their points position.

Nadal was doing very well at this point last year, so the slips ups he has had so far will probably cost him #2 unless he recovers very very well at Hamburg and Paris. That being said, Novak had a very poor second-half of 2007 (bar the US open finals) so he is likely to pick up a lot of points over Nadal and Federer if he maintains form and manages to consistantly finish in the top 4 during the remaining grand slams and Masters Series tournaments

Federer will likely only have 1400 points or so over Djokovic after Hamburg, and he will have to either win or finish second in every remaining grand slam or master series tournament this year to preserve his points lead and have any chance of defending his #1 spot. IT will only take 2 early losses (quarter finals would be considered an 'early' loss for Federer) in any of the remaining tournaments for him to likely lose his #1 spot if either Nadal or Djokovic finish the remainder of the year consistantly

Djokovic doesn't have as many points to defend for the remainder of the year so he is likely to only close the gap on the top two

Answer 2

Djokovic was lucky in Rome--no serious opposition (except for Stepanek who retired with an injury).  I hope Rafa does win Hamburg, but even more importantly, his 4th consecutive French Open.  Rafa is an extremely talented player and one of the finest gentlemen in the sport.  He shows respect for the other players.  Some of Djokovic's tacky impersonations are going to backfire some day.

Answer 3

We'll see.  He's still the favorite to win Hamburg in my opinion.  Until someone takes him out, I don't see any reason to think he won't win.

Answer 4

If Nadal loses early like in the second or third round, and Djokovic reach the semis or better, he will be #2. For Nadal to keep his #2 ranking, reach the quarterfinals or better regardless you win or lose the tournament, but don't lose in the second or third round. He has to defend all the points he won to the finalist as he did last year. This tournament will tell if he keeps the #2 ranking or loses it. Do you get tennis magazines? If you do, the cover for this month if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Great Magazine. I suggest you to get it if you don't have it. I have to admit that Tsonga is my 2nd favorite player.

Answer 5

I certainly hope so.. It would be great, magnificent:). I know, Novak doesn´t deserve to become nr2.. but life is so unfair sometimes. And he is always so lucky. Let´s hope that Rafa will be fit and take this title too. He´s a fighter and he is called the king of clay for a reason;).

Answer 6

Only God knows the future.

Answer 7

I certainly hope that Federer takes his 5th Hamburg title !!! So I hope that Rafa loses !!!

Answer 8

For the fans of Rafa...he is already #1.  I really don't care what that Serbian creep does...he'll NEVER compare to the rest of the tennis players.  HE HAS NO CLASS.  HE HAS NO MANNERS..HE HAS NO HUMILITY.  He only has ego and a big nose!