Will USA go into an economic depression? And how long would it take for it happen?

Question

With the recent reports of more job being cut and high gas prices it would seem that we are heading for an economic depression. What is the likelyhood of that happening and if so, what time frame would it most likely occur?

Answer 1

Well I guess you would have to be blind not to see that. I would say within the next year. The dems. will have to fix the economy again. Maybe the reps. won't s***w it up next time.

Answer 2

Well if you're going to make those first to factors someof your major points, I would reccomend comparing our stats to those of our competitors. Unemployment is higher in many countries that are not in a depression, and high FUEL (because gas is only part of a huge market) costs are actually only half of those in Europe.

Now you may suggest that this does not affect them because they drive smaller cars for shorter distances, which is true, however, why is it possible that they are able to still fly to America? Hasn't kerosene risen even higher than gasoline?

We do still have somewhat of a safety net either way, as pointed out by a previous answerer: our weak dollar provides us with some leverage when it comes to exports and tourism.

Besides, all of the "experts" aren't even sure if we're in a recession, and if you check the intrade stock (gambles on probability) on the US undergoing recession, the share price dropped 50% down to $30.00, so chances of even a recession are 1/3 (and I would trust Intrade's gamblers long before I would CNN's or FOXNew's; these people are playing with real money so you would have to be a real fool to gamble on something you're not a true expert at, like Chevy Chase did in that Vegas comedy).

So there's my answer: at most, the chances of a depression are 1 in 3, which is actually on the safe side since those are really being generous to a recession. But if it did happen, what time frame would it occur, you ask?

I would imagine no earlier than next fall. Like I said, we're not doing too bad right now and the Western European markets are expected to follow our decline within the next 2 or 3 quarters. The high gas prices should hopefully be teaching consumers a lesson that will help correct the nations negative savings rate, our greatest threat: people will beging to buy smaller cars that are more economical rather than luxurious (we have the smaller part almost down), smaller houses that are cheaper to heat, and live closer to where they work or to access of public transportation.

You can't predict how long a recession is going to last. We've only had 1 and even then there wasn't enough data recorded. On the one hand, I would say that it would be shorter because we do know now more about macroeconomics and we have more technology and better systems to monitor the economy. On the other hand, I don't think people know how to be resourcefull enough to prioritize their needs.

Our grandparents and great grand parents like to tell us how they used to reuse their lunch bags and ate only for nutritional purpose; modern day gluttony would never compare to their one or two deserts a week. Plus people walked back then or rode the bus. Today it's cheaper to drive IF you have an economical car, which, like I said before, would be the preffererd mode of transportation if gas prices were high enough.

Answer 3

No, economic experts do not predict a depression.  We have not even gone into a recession yet.  A recession is when the GNP is negative for 2 quarters in a row.  It has not been in the negative yet.

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Answer 4

There are already people in an economic depression in this "economy."

Nero fiddles while Rome burns............................

The current administration is just interested in the prosperity of arms manufacturers, oil companies and Haliburton, and the congress does nothing.

The worst president EVER, and noone does anything about it.   A religious war that noone wants, and more taxes, higher food prices----when will it end?    Either when the economy finally collapses completely or when the American people finally decide that they've had enough.

DON'T VOTE FOR ANY INCUMBENTS, REGARDLESS OF PARTY;  They're the ones who got us into this mess, and they'll continue doing the same thing if we let them.

Answer 5

Yes, and any day now . An it will change the whole landscape of this country because of the civil strife that will occur .

Answer 6

We are already in an economic depression...They might not admit it but look at what is going on in the country...All these jobs and benefits that has be terminated are a result of the depression. There is no good income coming in for the country on a whole,  our currency has devalued and stocks keep going down.

Answer 7

I do believe that we already are in a depression on wall street with banks failing. Wall Street in turn controls the nation, so yes some degree of a general nationwide depression is imminent. On the other hand, our exports (which are now much cheaper to other countries because of the weak dollar) along with tourism might lessen the blow.

Answer 8

No we are not.  There is no need to panic or fear.  The US isn't even in a recession.  Our GDP growth has not been going down for two economic quarters (we haven't gotten to the point in which there is negative GDP growth for two quarters).  So no we aren't even in recession.

I doubt we'd hit a depression.  Our world has learned the lessons of the last one and there are controls in place to ensure that it won't happen.  Furthermore, many nations also depend on our economy being good, so I doubt they'd let a depression hit.

We have been trhough worse and got out of those problems, we'll rise again.  I think I heard that the economy will grow again later, so I'm sure we'll be fine. All will be better.