Will global warming really matter?

Question

Now, just so you know, I happen to a) think that global warming is the product of human activity, and b) be an ardent environmentalist (somewhere between conservationism and preservationism).

Here's the thing though: We've already consumed about half of the liquid fossil fuels that will ever be consumed. There is still a considerable amount of coal, but not that much. If the first half of the liquid fossil fuel endowment produced about 3 degrees F of warming then wouldn't it be fair that the second half would produce comparable amounts of warming?

Will another 3 degrees of warming be particularly bad? Are the climate scientists assuming that we will still be burning as much oil in twenty years as we are today? I can tell you with some measure of certainty that we won't be... and not because we have any choice in the matter either. Just google peak oil.

I guess that the only wild card here is coal...

Answer 1

In a geological time scale, global warming is insignificant - climate change will happen over thousands of years, with or without human help. As for short term, meaning over the next few decades, that's up for debate, with many valid opinions on both sides of the table.

Answer 2

First off, ur second paragraph sounds a little fishy. check the facts to be safe.

Second off, lets say average temps have raised 3 degrees F, that alone can make a significant impact along with the greenhouse affect which will rise temperatures higher then 3 degrees.

third off, when talking about global warming, it gets out of hand that people talk about this effect and its going to "burn us to death" Thats just some statement someone prolly made who wasn't educated enough in the natural resources. Think about whats going to be changed first by global warming, think of land/water/vegetation. Glaciers anyone? i'll leave it at that for now.

Answer 3

you got some good answers on this one for sure.

if 1 degree made this how it is then we are in for one h**l of a ride, im thinking that ignorance and industrial greed has us in quite a jam. realistically it will most definitely matter but i truly think we, as a society can not catch it in time. even if we collectively believed it to to true.

i believe that the global warming its self will not ultimately be our un-doing, but our eventual last minute reaction to the effects of it on each other.

if coal is the wild card then its the USA that will play that card out in the end. that will tip the scales of global power and influence in a major way.

example: a huge thorn in California's economic side is Mexico...

when the USA pulls the "coal card"... the remaining world may just become our Mexico.

Answer 4

We haven't burnt 5% of the fossil fuels available.  We have, in the USA, enough coal and oil to last another thousand years.  Check your facts.

Also, warmer beats cooler--hands down.

Answer 5

There is some debate about the amount of oil we've used (ranges from 50% of all reserves already to will have used 50% in 15-20 years time) but yes, there is a lot of coal left but maybe only 1-200 years as our consumption rates are still increasing exponentially.

The feedback issue is hugely important as is lag (it can take decades for pollutants to significantly add to climate change) and accumulation (the first half doesn't go away as the second half gets added so its not 3 degrees then 3 degrees, its 3 degrees then 6 degrees).

But to answer your actual question - will GW matter? That depends on what you consider important, for example:

Does it matter if more than half the world's population will lose the land upon which they live (including the entire eastern seaboard of the US, the gulf states and much of California)?

Answer 6

You're forgetting the feedbacks.

3 degrees of warming would absolutely release the arctic permafrost methane

We'd lose the protective reflection of the acrtic ice cover (actually we're losing that well before 3 degrees...)

The oceans would lose their ability to soak up CO2

There would be a massive loss of forests (particularly the Boreal forests of the North)

And atmospheric water vapor will increase.

These together will vastly make our CO2 contribution pale into insignifigance. The longer we take, and the worse it gets, the less chance we have of being able to swing this around, which is why it's SO important that we don't let it get that far.

By the way, oil itself might not be a planet killer, but coal certainly is. And haven't you heard about the coal to oil technologies already being developed? That's perhaps our last nail in our own collective coffin.

One other thing, if the extreme weather we're already experiencing all over the world can come from (only) 1 degree of increase, imagine how things would be with triple that. It shows how fine the balance really is.