Will it be Warmer or Colder 5 years from now?

Question

How do you know if it will be warmer or cooler 5 years from now?

Without using the thought that it was warm last year, so this year should be warmer, show us how you came to your conclusion.

You can also make a guess, but please state that you can't tell for sure, and you are only taking a guess.

Answer 1

Greenland ice melting rate doubled from 2003 to 2006 to 56 cubic miles per year. This was measured with a new pair of satellites by NASA.

In 2007, NASA published a photo that showed the summer ice floes covered One Million Square Miles LESS, than in 2006.

Conclusions:

1. The ocean will be warmer due to the missing ice cover and this heat will further warm up the globe.

2. The ice melting rate in Greenland will increase further.

Unless the ice floes return (and save the polar bear), the globe will continue to get warmer and the polar bear will not be a threatened species but an extinct species.

You can hope the ice floes return, if they do, the global warming will end and the polar bears survive.

But, recent data, using the same satellites used to measure the melting rate in Greenland, shows that Antarctica is also losing ice and about the same rate as Greenland or, about 196 gigatons of ice per year.

It was expected that extreme low temparature regions, in both poles, are the ones that show the largest temperature increases -they do, nearly a degree F.

Yes, if I were to bet, I would bet it will be warmer in 5 years. How much? Less than one degree Fahrenheit.

Expect continuing drought and shutting down of the Nuclear Powerplants on the East, as they run out of cooling water.

Expect lower levels in Lakes Superior and Mead, and Florida's huge fresh water lake.

California's river will not have smelt, salmon and other fish within five years -they are rapidly disappearing.

Los Angeles may begin to build a huge desalination plant powered by windmills near the Mojave Desert, within five years. There are more than 7,500 in use now, most in the Middle East.

Answer 2

About the same...why would I want to change anything?

It's perfect....

Answer 3

Warmer.  Because Hansen understands radiative forcing and all that stuff and he hasn't been wrong for the last 25 years, so it's doubtful he'll be wrong this time.  

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

Quick, in 1988 what did Lindzen and Singer predict global temperatures would do?

Answer 4

Dr. Jello you will be melting melting melting!

Answer 5

Nobody knows.  There is a reason why meteorologists do not buy into the global warming theory.  They know that in order to make predictions there are hundred of variables.  You get one of them wrong, your predictions are wrong.  Climate may be different from weather, but the concept is the same.  You get one variable wrong, your prediction will also be wrong.

Answer 6

Yes. It will be either warmer or cooler.

Answer 7

It depends on several factors:

*Where you live

*The rate that Climate Change has progressed

*What global weather patterns are active (El Nina for example)

As models develop and become more refine though I'm sure our forecasting (on not only climate change, but meteorology) will begin to improve to the point we can develop much more accurate answers to this.

So what is Exxon / Mobile pay you this week Jello?

Answer 8

warmer

Answer 9

To answer your question, Yes.  I will assume that Global Warming  should be added to the end of your question. e.g. "...5 years from now because of global warming". Many people do not understand the concept or implications of how the ocean's currents drive the climate, both at a regional and global level.  If the majority of the currents are changed because of the rising sea level temperatures, it will create a cascade effect.  A shift in these currents equals a shift to your regional climate change.  This may mean harsher winters, summers and storms or even the opposite effect of what the region is accustomed to.

Answer 10

You have to define the parameters of your question better, if you want any kind of serious response.  Are you talking about January 30, 2013 vs. January 30, 2008?  Or the average of year 2008 vs. 2013?  Or the 5-year GISS trend-line at the end of 2007 vs. the end of 2013?

Of course, as you know, this entire line is misleading, as Global Warming didn't stop in 1890, 1910, 1950, 1972, 1985, or 1992, and probably won't stop during many future dips in the global average temperature.  The reason is because the planet is currently not in a state of climate equilibrium.  The warming/cooling forcing are approximately 1.6 w/m^2 above what would produce a long-term stable global average temperature.

Answer 11

It will be cooler, absolutely no doubt about it.

Why? you ask, two primary reasons which may be linked.

Solar output has been declining and is forecast to decline even more.

The Pacific decadal oscillation has switched to it's cool phase. The warm phase began in 1977 which is the primary cause of global warming.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropics have been declining going on 5 years now. Atmospheric temperatures have been on the decline for several years now as well.

http://www.ssmi.com/rss_research/climate...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_dec...

The GISSTEMP has problems with urban contamination but still clearly shows the PDO cycles.

1905 Start of Warm phase

1946 Start of Cool phase

1977 Start of Warm phase

Present beginning the next cool phase

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

.

.

Answer 12

I know it will be warmer in south Alabama.

Answer 13

I'll choose door number 3 Monte!

Answer 14

I KNOW that the 5 year rolling average temperature (the red line in the graph below) will be higher than it is now.  Because Meehle, et al (cited below) proves it.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

I don't know what any particular year will do (the black dots that jump around a lot).  That's just weather, which is hard to predict.

Man's huge generation of greenhouse gases makes climate EASY to predict.  Like this:

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Ima...

taken from:

Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.A. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigleym and C. Tebaldi (2004). "Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate". Journal of Climate 17: 3721-3727

Bet you a zillion dollars.

Answer 15

I agree with Tomcat, the global temps are highly influenced by the ocean currents.

The IPCC is all margaret thatchers fault.  She made up global warming.  The IPCC has one goal, only to pump global warming.  All of their experiments dont take into account any of the feedback effects.  Both the known and unknown.

And baypoint, no one can predict the future.  I would be willing to bet that polar bears will NOT be going extinct.  How are we to predict that they will?  If they already spend some of their season on land, then why wont they be able to spend more?  Also, if the # of polar bears decreases, their food supply will increase.  And their food supply has to live on the land if the polar bears do too.  So im not sure how anyone can say for sure that polar bears will be extinct.

Answer 16

If you mean on a daily, weekly, monthly basis, it doesn't matter, since weather fluctuation masks the underlying climate trends.  

Even the 5 year mean has taken some dips over the past 125 years (although not so much since 1992 or so):

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2...

So I'd have to conclude that it doesn't matter, even for one year or 5 years.  

The 125 year record provides us with enough information that the change is occurring, so let's stop watching the thermometers waiting for "ultimate proof" and get to business reducing carbon emissions.

Answer 17

I'll take a guess that it will be colder.

Answer 18

Warmer is the trend.

Answer 19

Depends where you live. I used to live in a very cold state almost 5 years ago and now I live in a slightly warmer state.

In 5 years I could live near my friend in Arizona and so it would be warmer. Do you know something that I don't?

Answer 20

On average warmer.

Why won't you let people look at your question and answers?

Answer 21

It will depend on how much clothing you have on :-}

Answer 22

Well the IPCC has officially announced that global temperatures have not increased since 1998.  That with the new solar cycle, I'd say temperatures are going to continue to fall, but might increase.

We're still coming out of a mini ice-age you know.

Answer 23

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on cooler, but I don't know that it will be, I'm just playing the percentages based on my analysis of climate cycles.