Will milder winters and early springs help combat global warming?

Question

This year in the UK we've experienced what appears to be a very early spring. Again. Although this seems to signify global warming, is it not likely that the extra growing time of plants will absorb more CO2 as well as cooling the environment in total (areas of greenery show as cooler areas on thermo-imagery)?

And further, with the ice caps melting, won't that mean more water in the atmosphere? When this is coupled with rising temperatures won't that create more favourable conditions for vegetation growth on a global scale?

In short, is it possible that our ecosystem will self adjust to compensate for increased global temperatures and higher CO2 levels?

Opinions are great, but I'd appreciate an answer with a scientific basis too.

Thanks.

Answer 1

What you need is a groundhog, that way it will tell you if you will have a long winter or a short winter. If you scare it on purpose you can have long winters and slow the advance of global warming.

Answer 2

Weather is unpredictable, once every 10 years there is drought. Once per ten years is floods, another summer can be mild, another can be scorching, we can get a warm mild winter or experience cold snaps like no other. Storms can come at any time and they are unpredictable.The earth has never been stable and every ten years u get the opposite to the previous year, sometimes it can repeat for a period and remain stable for years then the unexpected explodes out of nowhere or that quake in a place where it doesn't and when it does, it's total devastation. Hunches can be made but how many times do the experts also get it so wrong and miss by so much. Man may improve technology but he will never conquer the weather it will always surprise him and frighten him unconditionally.

Answer 3

Plants can help, but they won't solve the problem.  Here's the opinion of someone who knows way more about it than everyone here, put together.

James Lovelock is the world's leading expert on the self regulation of the Earth.  It is something he finds awesome.  He refers to Earth as Gaia, in honor of it's ability to heal itself.  He has written books and peer reviewed scientific articles on it.

The data on global warming has changed his mind, convinced him that this time it's different.  His latest book, The Revenge of Gaia, is a passionate plea for massive construction of nuclear power plants to reduce global warming.  It's a very strange thing to come from Lovelock.

http://www.amazon.com/Revenge-Gaia-Earth...

For what it's worth, this graph shows clearly how plants just aren't close to keeping up.  Every summer (way more plants on the Northern Hemisphere) they make gains, only to lose more every winter.  It's things like this (only more detailed) that convinced Lovelock.

http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/cgi-bin/wdcgg/qu...

Answer 4

You raise a good point.  Such counter-effects are indeed important in analyzing any complex system (not jsut environmentaal ones). The question is how important are these effects?

With regard to global warming, in general, the effects you note ( with one exception)  could serve to reduce the rate of global warming--but are unlikely to do so, at least for some time (read on).

The exception is the possible increase of water vapor in the atmspere.  That won't help global warming--it will make it worse. The reason is simple: water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas.

But otherwise, there is a potential for increased vegitation to help--mainly by sequestering CO2.  However, in order for tha tto happen, we need a LOT more vegitation.  If we take advantage of regions where conditions are improved for plant life and plant trees, etc. then the cimate shifts in thsis case  could be made to work to  offset part of the global warming. However, at present, this is unlikely--for tere tobe any meaningful effect, you have to think in terms of decades--and you have to assume we stop the practice of cutting down trees and oterwise removing vegitation faster than nature can replace it--which is what humans as a whole are currently doing.

Do keep in mind two things: first, in analyzing this, you have to take a large scale,long term view. ONe early spring isn't going to matter--and there are regions where climate change will reduce rainfalll and hence vegitation.   So the point you make isn't a simple if--then relationship.

The other is that such "coutervailing effects" as you suggest are more likely to simply offset part of the primary effect (global warming, in this case).  

The real value of your idea is that it points to how we might use these effects  to help the situation--as in deliberately taking advantage of warmer  conditions to increase the amount of vegitation.

Answer 5

Generaly you are correct that nature has these feedback mechanisms that stabilise the climate to be optimum for life.

This is the basis of James Lovelock's Gaia hypothosis. http://www.ecolo.org/lovelock/

however humans have interupted many of these feedback loops through deforestation, water polution, loss of key species, while at the same time stressing the system through releasing the carbon originally locked up through the process of increased plant growth you describe.

What we are observing http://www.ipcc.ch is that the natural control systems are increasing unable to maintain the status quo and could to flip to a new stable state which is not conducive to life as we know it, eg the ocean conveyor could turn off leading to mass global extinction, gasses locked in permafrost could be released etc.

Answer 6

Can I have some of your Global Warming?  It never comes to Minnesota in the US.  It's always cold in the winter, and over the decades hasn't made us warmer at all.

In fact, our summers have been cooler too.

But, you know what they say:  Global Warming causes Global Cooling.

Answer 7

You also have to take into account deforestation– particularly in the Amazon and SE Asia - as forest is cleared for crops, timber etc. On land, meanwhile, climate warming tends to dry out the tropics and reduce plant growth there, which in turn reduces the rate of photosynthesis and carbon uptake.

There is also unfortunately evidence from experiments on forest stands of trees that even when CO2 becomes more abundant in the atmosphere other conditions (e.g. availability of nutrients such as Nitrogen and Phosphorus) act as limiting factors on plants in their ability to photosynthesise CO2. In fact it may be reduced.

http://face.env.duke.edu/PDF/oec131-02.p...

And though a few claim that CO2 is good for plant growth and increased levels can only be good for plant growth they ignore what farmers know (they add CO2 to their greenhouses as a fertiliser), adding too much CO2 can kill the plants, they have to limit how much they add. A little goes a long way.

As for global impacts. The below is from the IPCC Impact assessment summary for policymakers.

http://www.tearfund.org/webdocs/Website/...

Africa: by 2020 between 75-250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

Asia: glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

Australia and New Zealand: water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and parts of New Zealand.

Europe: nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors.

Latin America: Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.

North America: Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.

Polar regions: the main projected effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms

Small Islands: sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards.