Will nobizlikeshowbiz win the derby?

Question

Will nobizlikeshowbiz win the derby?

Answer 1

I don't know if he will win, but I've been high on this horse since last year. I was disappointed in his run in the FoY but he redeemed himself (in my eyes anyway) in the Wood.

After seeing Street Sense work out this week I have to put him above Nobiz right now, and man it pains me to say that...LOL!

I want to see how Curlin runs in the Arkansas Derby today because his pedigree just screams "Classic" to me. If he puts the competition away today like he has in the other 2 races, I give him a huge shot at the Derby.

It seems like all the trainers are bucking the training trends of the past this year.  So I hope to have a clearer picture after this week-end.

Answer 2

I honestly really doubt it.  He's done some things well, but he beat himself in the Fountain of Youth.  He was more focused in the Wood with blinkers on and cotton in the ears...  but he charged out to the lead...  it didn't bother him too much, but if the Derby has a fast pace and Nobiz tries to pull to the front he'll wear himself out.  And there's always the possibility that he'll revert back to his greenness and do something silly like he did in the Fountain of Youth.  Nobiz got a really easy run in the Wood and I have to wonder if he can win with a more difficult trip.

Personally I like Scat Daddy.  

Also, Hard Spun has performed wonderfully with the exception of the single race where he wasn't happy with the track...  oddly though he had been speeding through his workouts on the track and forgot how to run in the race...  But his work at Churchill was super fast and it being on dirt instead of any synthetic surface, no problems should arise in the race.  

I liked Street Sense, but I was thinking about him before his race today and I realized he had an easy run in his last 2 races...  he had the rail the entire race...  so i had to wonder if he could handle a run if he had to go around the outside.  And that's what he had to do today...  he was 2 or 3 off the rail in the Blue Grass and he ended up in a full field battle...  and it's not like there was some grueling pace that he had to keep up with...  he should have been able to easily outrun that field...  so i don't think this is the same horse from the BC Juvenile...  but then he might be saving his strong performance for the Derby.  

Circular Quay!: if he doesn't fall all the way to the back of the pack, I don't know if anyone can match his closing run.  

Curlin!: this is one impressive horse.  I didn't know much about him until this week but now that I do, he makes me want to doubt my decision about Scat Daddy winning...  he's undefeated and in 3 races he has a combined total of winning by 27.5 lengths.  he hasn't raced anyone important yet, but the way he kicks open the lead on the homestretch is really impressive so i think he can handle running against a stronger field.

So I think Nobiz is an ok horse, but since there's so many others who have proven themselves, I just don't think Nobiz has what it takes for the field.