Will there be More or Fewer Hurricanes this Year?

Question

Co2 is continually increasing.

Will this cause the oceans to warm up enough to form more or less hurricanes this season?

Will there be more Cat 5's this year than on average?

Can you show your work to how you came to your conclusion? If not, you can say that it's your opinion that there will be more or fewer, or tell us you have faith that there will be more this year.

Answer 1

Who cares?  Effects on hurricanes are theoretical indirect symptom.  The presence or not of that symptom does not directly prove or disprove the warming (we have global temperature records for that), or say anything about the source of that warming (we have carbon istotope measurements for that).

Insurance companies are interested in damage forecasting and the government is interested in disaster preparadness, but it's not like global warming couldn't be happening if hurricanes weren't increasing.

The global tend of about .1 degree warming per decade over the last 100 years or about .2 degree warming per decade over the last 30 years (.02 degree per year) may be offset by this hurricane season by the La Nina cooling cycle of weather (let's assume that's .50 degrees).

That would lead us to the conclusion that it will be a relatively mild hurricane season.  Whether it's more or less damaging than ususal depends upon whether (and where) the storms make landfall.

As for the question, "Will there be more Cat 5's this year than on average" there is a historical average of less than one per year, so what do you mean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Cat...

Although the first years of the 2000s have already had more category 5 hurricanes than any previous decade (4 in 2005 alone, the world's hottest year according to NASA), I'd guess that the La Nina influence, if it continues, will prevent any category 5s from forming this year.

Answer 2

The simple answer is yes because the only place to go is up after the last 2 hurricane seasons.

Regardless, the hurricane season will be caused by global warming.  Whether we have another season full of Katrinas and Ritas or no hurricanes, rest assured in the link between the hurricane season and AGW.

Answer 3

I really do not think anyone can say for sure. No one can predict the weather for more than a few days in advance.

Answer 4

According to William Gray and Philip Klotzbach, the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season will be "above average".

Answer 5

Either way they've got a study that says it will be caused by global warming.

More:

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editori...

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/30/o...

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Science/story?...

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-5817067...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=1...

Fewer:

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Science/200...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/2...

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk...

GCN doesn't seem to understand how the ever-changing story makes the believers less credible.    First it was more.  Then more and stronger.   Then not necessarily more but stronger.   Then weaker and/or less frequent (two years after both the "stronger" and "more" predictions stopped being accurate), now different people say different things - there's a theory out there to cover every eventuality.

Now it's "wild fluctuations" - right, that's what's always been the case, and it's called WEATHER.   But that's not good enough for them - for them it's our fault, no matter what happens.   Must be.   Has to be.   Because their intentions are supposedly good.   Well their intentions are not good - their intentions are to impose their lifestyles upon the rest of us.

Answer 6

According to AGQW loonies, there will be more hurricanes with greater power. No wait, that prediction only stands if true. If we have less hurricanes, then their models predicted that also. Either way, they are right. As a matter of fact, the latest models predicted a pothole on my street. d**n they are good at covering all basis. I just hit the dang thing.

BTW, don't you know, they can not predict anything sooner than 10 years out. Apparently it is easier to predict future climate than current climate, because boy have they been wrong this past 8 years.

Answer 7

Does the increase or decrease in the number of hurricanes in a particular year prove or disprove the scientific theory of AGW?

Hint: It does neither.

Answer 8

Above normal.

Because there is a strong La Nina in the eastern Pacific.  and a high ACE index. Also, Dr. Gray has predicted:

Seven hurricanes, three 'major'

William Gray's team 2008 forecast predicts 7 hurricanes will be among 13 named storms

At least one hurricane will hit U.S. coast, says his Colorado State U. team

Gray's predictions are watched closely by experts, emergency responders

Last season, Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes; only six formed

Answer 9

this is a questian that only GOD can answer

Answer 10

The number of Atlantic tropical storms that will intensify into hurricanes is variable and not easily predicted (mostly because the phase of ENSO is increasing in variability, with shifts from el Nino to la Nina happening very rapidly).  Despite the indeterminacy in the number, however many hurricanes there are, around 50% of them will be category three or larger.  This is up from 20% in 1980.  

It's the intensity, not the frequency, that is the indicator for global warming.  

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/...

edit:  Aren't they silent because you have them blocked?

Answer 11

Yes.