Will this Summer be Warmer or Cooler than Average?

Question

6 months from now there will be more co2 in the air than there is today.

Will this cause temperatures to be warmer than average this summer? Or will this summer be cooler than normal?

Can you back up your work with the calculations you used to come to your conclusion, or are you just expressing your's or someone else’s opinion?

Do you really know, or do you just flip a coin?

Answer 1

The global tend of about .1 degree warming per decade (.01 degree per year) may be offset by the La Nina cooling cycle of weather (let's assume .50 degrees), so yes, cool weather trends can be 50X stronger in the short run, and this year they are likely to temporarily mask the long term climate trend.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation is pretty well known.  I think it's a better bet than a coin toss that the "oscillation" will continue, and the La Nina cooling will have a measurable effect on 2008.  

If the warming trend weren't happening, the 5 year average (that minimizes ENSO influence) wouldn't still be climbing:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2...

Answer 2

Still confusing short-term weather with long-term climate, I see.  Perhaps this definition I found will help educate you:

"Climate is defined as statistical weather information that describes the variation of weather at a given place for a specified interval. It represents the synthesis of weather; more formally it is the weather of a locality averaged over some period (usually 30 years) plus statistics of weather extremes. We talk about climate change in terms of years, decades or even centuries."

Perhaps you'd like to demonstrate your confidence that global warming is NOT happening any more, by telling us all if January 2009 will be colder than January 2008.  Will it?

Answer 3

It doesn't really matter.  In the long run, global warming will increase temperature.

There have been temporary coolings in 1982, 1991-1992, 1999-2000.  EVERY TIME global warming comes back stronger than ever, because of the increase in greenhouse gases due to man.  Proof in the links below.

Those people who think temporary variations change anything, simply don't understand the data.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

discussed in detail, with confirmation, at:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/g...

Answer 4

Why would anyone want to argue with a rock. Now, are you questioning northern or southern hemisphere? Australia had the hottest January (their summer) on record, but there were other areas of the globe that had record cold. Add them all together, divide by the number of, and you'll get averages. You keep talking weather when the issue is long term climate. An analogy for you. The stock market has many ups and downs, especially recently with the many downs, but over the long term, those ups and downs are smoothed out and the average gain is somewhere around 7%. Granted, the market has nothing to do with climate, but it does show how chaotic weather patterns can be smoothed out to show a trend.

Science can't prove evolution either, but it's accepted in mainstream science.

Answer 5

According to the Met Office, "2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years ... but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years."

Answer 6

My IPCC model says it will be warmer and cooler. Based on my powerful model many parts of the earth will be warmer, with periods of cooling. Other parts of the earth will definitely be cooler when they are not warmer. For those parts setting record warmths, I predict higher temps. In the areas setting record cold temps, I predict colder temps. But do fear as these areas experiencing cooler temps will warm up and become areas experiencing warmer temps at some point in time.

Other areas will be experiencing severe drought, until they receive rain. Those areas experiencing floods will dry up and may or may not experience higher temps. There is a 50% chance that on any given day, for anywhere in the world, they will definitely experience warmer then cooler temps, followed by cooler then warmer temps (not necessarily in that order).

Glaciers will experience a definite climate. This climate will definitely melt some parts of some of the worlds glaciers. Our model has shown that during the warmest parts of the climate, namely summer, glaciers may begin to show some signs of melting. We are not sure, but it could be because of those d**n polar bears playing on the glacier. We have modeled this into our models and are fairly certain that the glaciers have grown in our recent past, 16,000 years ago. By extrapolating this record out and including man made CO2 as a driver of climate, we are fairly certain, except in those times the glaciers are growing,  that the current glacier covering most of the Northern Hemisphere will begin to melt at alarming rates and ocean levels will continue to rise until they reach current levels, at which point they will continue to rise at a devastating rate of 3mm per year. This rate will continue for several thousands of years until only the highest peaks are still available for land. Or maybe my 64 ounce of Pepsi falling onto the computer has caused this most recent prediction. I will need to reprogram my model taking into account this wave of soda submerging my keyboard and PC under 1.5mm of high fructose laden drink. Once I am proven wrong, I will rerun the model and claim my model most definitely almost , within .001 to 10 degrees was possibly right. Until then, I am thirsty and need a refill.

Now, you may think that I am talking in circles, but if you read the paragraph backwards, you will see that I make complete sense and am right at least 51% of the time. Fortunately, I am only wrong 51 % of the time, thus giving me a 102% chance of being partially right.

This model has been provided by the IPCC and should not be copied or duplicated with prior written consent from someone associated with the IPCC, but not necessarily a member, whether past or present. In the event you would like an oral transcript of this presentation, please send a donation of $1,000,000 to the IPCC so we may further come up with dire and wildly fabricated predictions of doom and gloom. We retain the right to change or make up new studies if by some chance, we may not be completely right in some aspect of this and our all future past presentations.

Note: Dear IPCC, I am joking and please do not taz me bro.

Answer 7

CO2 is exaggerated. They can't forcast the weather from one day to the next, so it would be difficult to say. This is my opinion, but I'm 60 years and have yet to see them get it right in my life time.

Answer 8

yes it will be warmer due to global warming.

yes it will be cooler due to climate change.

calculation follows.

radical liberals + U.S. haters = loud devout believers

lucky I still have a coin to flip after 40 years of environmental whacko's destroyed U.S. industry.

Answer 9

Global warming is expected to make the average world wide temperatures rise with 0.2-0.4 degrees each decade. That makes an average increase of 0.03/year. I'm not sure if I will notice that difference from my own observations. Would you?

Not that I expect you to stop ranting about this anyway but here's a forecast for you:

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/i...

Quote:

Global warming is forecast to set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record, scientists reported on Thursday.

.... "Over the 100-year timescale, the main change is going to come from greenhouse gases that will dominate natural variability, but in the coming 10 years the natural internal variability is comparable," Smith said.

End quote.

Answer 10

It depends on where.  Although the overall tempereature of the planet is one or two degrees hotter.  Climates don't just get hotter, they change.  The wind and weather patterns are changing.  So some places it will be cooler and some places it will be hotter.

Answer 11

Funny how the alarmists are complaining about the confusion between weather and climate.  How many times have we heard news from the alarmists that some month was the warmest on record?  Is that not weather as opposed to climate?  2007 was one of the coolest years on record for many places yet we don't hear about it.  Is it because it is an "inconvenient" truth for the alarmists?  And how long can the alarmists continue the mantra that cooler temperatures don't constitute evidence against global warming?

We are now about a decade into the global warming alarmism.  Shouldn't we all be swimming in ice melt by now?  What are you alarmists going to do when your short term predictions don't come true?  Global warming is really going to set in after 2009?  Really?  What exactly does that mean?  I love it now that we can really start looking back and hopefully people will realize that the predictions are not coming true.

Oops, my bad.  I forgot that whatever the weather, global warming is to blame.  Hot?  AGW.  Cold?  AGW  Drought?  AGW.  Floods?  AGW.  Hurricanes?  AGW.  No hurricanes?  AGW.  Record highs?  AGW.  Record lows?  AGW.

Answer 12

I flipped a coin, and it came up tails... which I assigned to cooler than average.

But Im sure the GISS or NOAA will claim it was above average, like they said it was in my area in january, which I do not believe.  I wouldnt be suprised if they falsified temperature values to skew the results.

Answer 13

Well, first you have to say summer "Where?"

On the other hand, although is true that there'll be more CO2, it is not enough to raise the temperature to the point where you will feel the difference. (see source 1.)

Other fenomena like El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) will have a more important effect in the wheather this summer. (See 2.)

Answer 14

I think it will be an average summer.

Answer 15

Yes.