Will we repeat the energy crisis every couple of decades?

Question

I've just seen all this before. High oil prices, followed by blame. Followed by calls to develop alternative energy and conservation. Switching big cars for small ones.

We say it's different this time, but I have a hunch that in a few years, oil prices will drop way down. We'll stop investing the money in expensive renewable energy and we'll start buying bigger cars again.

Answer 1

I don't doubt it at all.  One thing that is clear is that this country has a hard time learning from its past.

Answer 2

As Santayana said " those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it"

Answer 3

Not this time.  The basic parameters have chaned--on two counts.

First, it is no longer possible to run the kind of oil surplus that will promote low pries. They are moderating  somewhat--but yu will never see cheap gas again. World demand is simply too high.

Second, alternative energy is no longer expensive. Some (wind, nuclear) is now cost competitive even allowing for moderated oil pirces (the recent run-up was partly short-term speculation).

Solar is almost competitive. Operationally it is already cheaper. The start-up cost is high--but has dropped by half since 2000 and is expected to halve again within 5-10 years. That makes it cheaper than ccoal or oil.

Electric cars are a viable technology now--aas are hybrids.

History is a good baseline--but you will be misled everytime if you don't factor in changes in underlying conditions, which you did not.

Answer 4

ha ha agreed. I think everyone forgot about the 70's. This is a repeat of a past decade.