With 40 mile electric cars filling 80% of commuter demand & cellosic ethanol how much will oil decrease?

Question

I was just wondering if the average PHEV will give at least 40 miles of driving on pure electric and that satisfying 80% of the average daily commute of the average driver. Also with the combination of this new cellosic ethanol that can convert waste materials and switch grass to gas for under $1 per gallon then how many gallons decrease would we actually accomplish say in the next 5 years if say at least 50% of americans actually buys one of these cars. I leave out there for you to mull over. I am truly curious of your thoughts and if you want to add even one more dimension then adding solar roofing to cars and houses as well. Hmmmm sounds nice doesn't it?

Answer 1

This is a very good question....and unfortunately, the answer is not much.....too many other consumer goods are derived from petroleum. On top of that, those cars that run 40 miles on Electricity alone will only be bought by those who can afford them ($48k initial price for the Chevy Volt - unsubsidised) and they'll probably be just like the Prius was at first, lost of demand, very little supply, so dealers get to charge a fee to "find" you one.  My guess, demand will decrease gradually in the USA over the next 15 years but that doesn't mean China and India's demand will do anything but soak up our decline. The days of $50 oil are gone unfortunately.  You're still going to have to buy gas for the next 15-20 years and it's going to cost you $100's to fill up your tank...maybe as early as 3 years from now. It doesn't matter if they turn switchgrass or corn or beats into ethanol, they still have to deliver it to a station and that = diesel fuel.....oil prices aren't going to come down anytime soon because diesel demand will do nothing but increase over time globally.  Oh ya, forgot to mention....if any thought of a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico this summer...oil prices will be over $200 per barrel and fill ups will be nighmarishly high.

Answer 2

is this cellosic ethanol even commercially viable yet? i dont think so, and how much that that can produce extra in ethanol is questionable. Also it take about 14yrs for all the current vehicles out there to be replaced by new cars. Also despite the gas prices (i drive an SUV), im not gonna sell it at a loss then buy a car just to save some money on gas. And most people arnt going to get rid of their car unless they overspent in the first place to buy their SUV. Oil is gonna dominate the vehicle energy for the next two decades either way. Answer is drill

Answer 3

You've been reading predictions from people who wish to sell you stock in shaky energy schemes.  

Your cellulosic ethanol doesn't exist yet.  At such time as it does, it'll be quite costly and it will contain less than half the energy of an equal volume of gasoline.  

Solar roofing on cars will add approximately nothing, as will solar roofing for houses; photovoltaic technology is as slow to develop as storage batteries and alcohol-fuel schemes.  So you'll be using expensive gasoline, a bicycle, your feet, or public transit for the forseeable future.