With Penn twice-defeated, PPV potential of UFC’s lightweights diminished
In mixed martial arts, a good rule of thumb for drawing potential is the bigger the fighter, the bigger the interest from fans.
It doesn’t always work that way, of course. But what was easily the biggest card in the history of the UFC, the largest MMA promoter in the world, was headlined by a heavyweight title fight. On the other end of the spectrum, the 155lb lightweight division, the UFC’s smallest division, has only ever had one proven pay-per-view draw: B.J Penn. And the trouble is, he’s not the champion any more.
That puts the UFC in a tough spot. Penn lost his title at UFC 112 in April to a relative unknown, Frankie Edgar, who came in as a 10-1 underdog (or even greater on some books.) The UFC was able to book a rematch for UFC 118, where Penn was expected to regain his title, but he lost again to Edgar.
Penn and PPV
There have been just six pay-per-view shows in UFC history that have headlined with lightweight bouts. And Penn has been in every single one, whether challenging for a title or defending it. As a lightweight challenger he came in as a favourite at UFC 35, the first lightweight headliner bout, and lost to Jens Pulver. He moved up to welterweight after and went to fight for different promotions. He finally returned to win the belt at UFC 80, the next PPV headed by lightweights. He defended successfully at UFC 84, then 101, then 107, lost it at 112 (as co-main event) and failed to challenge successfully at UFC 118.
So the UFC is now stuck with a situation where they have a relatively unknown champion, and the number one contender, Gray Maynard, is an even worse draw, not only being relatively unknown, but also possessing a boring fighting style, a grinding wrestling game.
Even with Penn as a headliner, lightweight cards also usually had to be bolstered with impressive co-main events, which were often heavyweight bouts. At UFC 101 they had the card bolstered with a superfight between middleweight champion Anderson Silva and poster boy Forrest Griffin at light heavyweight, whereas 118 had a hugely publicized heavyweight fight between the legendary Randy Couture and James Toney, a veteran heavyweight boxer.
The future
For now, it seems the UFC may not be able to promote the lightweight division as they have in the past. Penn’s star is now dulled somewhat with his two losses. The second most popular fighter, Kenny Florian, was likewise beaten in his last bout by the dull Maynard.
What the UFC often does is have lightweight fights headline their Fight Nights, which are cards broadcast for free on Spike TV and typically feature either lower-tier fighters or fighters whom the UFC wants to build popularity for. For that reason it’s been fighters such as Florian, Maynard, Nate Diaz and more who’ve regularly featured for the enjoyment of cable TV audiences. But they’ve never put a title fight on one of those cards; this could become the case soon.
Another option would be to put the fighters on cards showing outside of North America, such as in Britain or Germany, but this option also isn’t ideal. These are numbered events featuring in full-size arenas, but usually aren’t quite as strong as North American cards because the time delay means they can’t usually be shown on PPV, but once again are shown on time delay.
The difficulty is these shows are often designed to break new ground in areas where the sport is burgeoning, and those unaccustomed fans like to see the big men brawl as much as anybody. So that seems unlikely.
After a relative period of renaissance for the lightweight division of the UFC, they’ll have to go back to the drawing board. It may be quite some time before a lightweight fight, even a title fight, headlines a PPV event as the UFC waits for a new 155lb star to emerge. For now expect the next title fight to be placed on a card with another title fight as a headliner, or expect to see the battle for 155lb supremacy fought on free TV.
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