Would investing in Harley-Davidson within the next couple of days be a good idea?

Question

According to Google Finance, the last trade was $42.73. In July 2008, it was as low as $34.00. Should I invest in Harley Davidson now?

Answer 1

Fortunately I got out at the top.  Harley has done so well over the last 10 years as a result of there being a lot of "house rich" people refinancing their homes and using the cash-out to buy a Harley.  Since the downturn Harley has been crushed.  The housing market still needs a minimum of another two years to correct and another waive of foreclosures related to the readjusting of the Option ARM type loans is on the horizon.  Basically, there won't be any cash floating around for people to buy bikes.  While I'm a big fan of my HOG, I just don't see it being a solid investment right now.

Answer 2

Laura,

Nobody can predict the movement of the stock market in the next few days. It is a futile exrecise. It is futile because even if HD does all the right things the market sentiment might be bearish and bring the overall market down discounting any good moves made by HD.

Basically, it comes down to your estimation of what the market will be for motorcycles over the next 6 months or a year. No one, no matter how good they are can tell you what the market will do over the next couple of days. If it was that easy we would all be rich, sigh.

Answer 3

thats a tough one...check if they have any new launches or new advertising lately (check their press releases and blogs)...motorcycles are luxury items and when the economy is in a recession ppl tend to not buy the luxury items...i would look at if they have any new cost restructuring going on or things in that nature...before buying up shares...it can be risky