Wow !! Is Curlin the real deal?

Question

He looked awesome in the Arkansas Derby today.

Looks like Notional has been scratched from the Derby, so much for my future wager on him.

Answer 1

no ,I don't think curlin is the real deal he hasn't beat anybody, and the time was just soso. I kinda look at him like sweet northren saint last year impressive wins against nobodys.

Answer 2

Looks like a definite contender to me, although there is that possibility that he might regress in the Derby.  Anyhow, I think this year's Derby field will be wide open, with Curlin among bettors' top picks (Scat Daddy, Street Sense, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Any Given Sunday).

Answer 3

I don't think Curlin is the real deal (for the KY derby that is, he's a really good horse for sure), for several reasons.

1)  Arkansas Derby field was WEAK.

2)  If you study Dosage at all, or subscribe to the Dosage theory, Curlin is just at the "too high" value of 4.00.  

3)  There was a horse that won really big in one of the late preps (Blue Grass) last year.  He looked AWESOME.  That horse, Sinister Minister, ran something stupid like a 116 Beyer, and won by a crazy 12-3/4 lengths.  Where is Sinister Minister now?  I think I watched him last month where he was a heavily bet favorite in a straight allowance race at Santa Anita, where I did my best to (sucessfully, I might add) beat him at a good price.  And Santa Anita is a speed-biased track too.

Oddly enough, Sinister Minister's Dosage Index is also 4.00, go figure.

So I put Curlin in the "flavor of the week" category.  Check out the video (2nd link), look familiar?

Answer 4

I do think he's the real deal, but can he win the Derby off only 3 races, before I said no, now I say maybe.  1 more prep and I would say he's a lock, but I still wonder what the final 1/8th will do to him, not because of pedigree (dosage, like Nicks to me is a bunch of nonesense and numbers, look at the horses build, makeup, stride and running style, I'n my mind that will tell you how far it can go), being by Smart Strike out of a Silver Deputy mare he should have no problem, since they both have thrown runners who can get the classic distance.  I think its unfair to compare him to Sinister Minister who rode the golden rail at Keeneland (the only bias I ever beleived in) and went wire to wire as so many do there, I would have booked anyones bet on him in the Derby last year and I don't know too many people who took him too seriously the 10 days I was on the backside before the Derby last year.  

Yes he hasn't beat much, but he has beat horses who were beat by fewer lengths vs. some of the other big contenders.  He also handed it twice to Officer Rocket who has defeated Hard Spun and Street Sense, and some people think those horses are o.k.  His time wasn't the fastest, but what did everyone want him to do get hit to the wire and win by 20 so he could put up 1:48 on the board and not have anything left 3 weeks from now.  The fact that he ran that fast in what looked like a workout is impressive as h**l, and he really can rate which will help him a lot in the Derby.  

So in summation, do I think he's the real deal yes, we will find out soon if he turns out to be something really special, even if he doesn't win the Derby (which would be quite the feat seeing as he ran his first race amost 3 months to the day of the race) I think he will turn out to be a nice horse, don't forget people racing does continue after the 1st Saturday in May, and if he doesn't win it there will be many more races after that to prove how talented he is.  Am I betting him to win, no (I'm sticken with Street Sense and Circular Quay), but he will be on top (with those 2 and Great Hunter) as a saver in my Tris and Supers.

Answer 5

I haven't seen his fig yet, but I'm sure it is the best by far of the major preps. Many of the other contenders only top out at about a 98 Beyer.

I think that Curlin is now a strong deserving Derby favorite. Today's race was spectacular, and he is still coming in fairly fresh.

I think that he is going to toast all of those Pletcher horses, who have only been running about 100 Beyers.

He is now 7/2 in the future wager pool, Scat Daddy and Street Sense are about 9-1. Curlin will be the strong Derby fave at about 9/5. The way he looked today, I'm going to concentrate on who to use underneath in the exacta.

Answer 6

Yup he is the real deal. He is now my favorite in the Derby. I mean you never know... we might be looking at another Barbaro this year or maybe even a Triple Crown winner. But horses like that only come every once in like a generation and the Triple Crown has bee just over-rated now-a-days. But I do think he has wut it takes.

I also like Hard Spun.

Curlin and Hard Spun are my favorites because now Hard Spun is practicing on the dirt of Churchill downs I think he'll be fine.

--melissa--

RIP Barbaro

Answer 7

He runs fantastic in every race...  no one can catch him...  no one has been within 5 lengths of him at the finish.  Pretty awesome for a horse that didn't race until his 3 year old year!  I'll bet he won't be the favorite for the Derby because he's only raced 3 times, but he'll be a definate threat.

I was really disappointed to hear about Notional.  I wasn't a firm supporter of this horse, and I didn't think he'd win the Derby...  but I always hate for a horse to get hurt.  I'm happy it's not life threatening.  Perhaps he can make a triumphant return in the Breeders Cup or early next year.

If you don't like racing, Klaus, get off my board!  PS, people who think riding doesn't require fitness have never ridden a horse...  why don't you go find a thoroughbred barn and gallop a little...  see if you make it 10 feet before falling off

Answer 8

no, stupid horse racing isnt a sport! it is for the horse but how "in shape" do you have to be to ride a freaking horse. The only reason you would have to be... a certain weight (notice i didnt say in shape cause you dont!) is because horses wont be able to run if they have a "heavy" person sitting on them. Get a clue, and play a normal sport that actually puts you in shape.

Answer 9

he is great  a good bet