Yuri Foreman vs Miguel Cotto betting tips and Trends
If you’ve been betting on Yuri Foreman in his recent fights, then chances are that you are very happy with the WBA light middleweight champion. He was a definite underdog in his last fight, when he claimed the title with a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Santos in November 2009. In fact, Foreman is used to playing the role of the underdog - despite being a former National Golden Gloves medalist, he has been undervalued for most of his career, with most experts thinking that he lacked the power or athletic ability to become a champion.
Foreman will have his first chance to prove that he can defend his title on June 5 when he takes on Miguel Cotto at Yankee Stadium. It will also be a significant upgrade in class for Foreman - while Santos has nice wins such as Antonio Margarito and Joachim Alcine on his resume, his overall body of work can’t compare with that of Cotto. The Puerto Rican scraper is one of the legendary “tough guys” in the sport and has proven himself as an elite fighter for most of the 2000s against some of the top boxers in the business.
However, Cotto is coming off of a one-sided loss to Manny Pacquiao in November 2009 and some people are questioning exactly how much that fight took out of him. Certainly, Pacquiao has a way of short-circuiting careers: the two fighters that Pacquiao beat before taking on Cotto (Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya) both retired after being beaten. In fact, you have to go back to Jorge Solis, who Pacquiao beat in April 2007, to find an opponent who won his next three fights after losing to Pacquiao.
Cotto is an almost 2.5-to-1 pick to win the fight against Foreman. Most handicappers are betting that Cotto’s experience and rugged attack will be too much for the skilled but light-hitting Foreman to handle. Being a heavy favorite is a position that Cotto is used to, having been in the role several times during his career. While he was an underdog against Pacquiao he was an almost 3-to-1 favorite in the fight before that, a 12-round split decision over Joshua Clottey in June 2009.
Many people who are picking Cotto to win the fight are expecting it to end in a knockout - after all, if you think that Cotto’s punching power and constant pressure will overwhelm Foreman, then it stands to reason that there’s a good chance that Foreman won’t make it the full 12 rounds. However, Cotto has struggled to put away top ranked opponents in his career. According to the ranking system created by BoxRec.com, Foreman has a rating of 527. In his career, Cotto is 1-2 against fighters who had ratings of 500 or higher, with the only win being a unanimous decision over Shane Mosley in November 2007.
While Foreman is undefeated at 28-0, he has been forced to a split decision twice in his career, coming in back-to-back fights against Anthony Thompson and Andrey Tsurkan in 2007. Both fighters had one thing in common - their reaches were similar or greater than the 72” reach of Foreman, neutralizing his ability to pick opponents apart from the outside and stopping them from working inside. This won’t nearly as much of a problem for Foreman against Cotto, as he holds a five-inch reach advantage over the challenger.
Even if you believe that Cotto will win the fight via a knockout, it might be wise to take the over bet in an over/under proposition. Putting money on Foreman to last at least 10 rounds against Cotto would appear to be a safe bet even if you don’t think that he can win the fight. In his last 10 bouts, Cotto has gone at least 10 rounds with seven of his opponents. This is despite the fact that seven of these bouts have also ended via knockout.
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