Zenyatta to defend title in Breeders’ Cup Classic
The Classic has always been the climax of the Breeders’ Cup for the previous 26 years, and the year itself.
But this time it could be the climax to the racing career of one of the best horses that America has ever seen. And it all boils down to whether Zenyatta can defend her title in the Classic and take her career to a perfect 20-20?
To borrow a line from Barack Obama, yes she can.
The main questions that have been hanging over Zenyatta are that most of her 19 straight victories have come within the confines of her native California – including her two Breeders’ Cup wins that came when the meeting was held at Santa Anita – and mostly on synthetic surface as opposed to the dirt that she will run on at Churchill Downs.
However, she has travelled twice to Arkansas, to win the Grade One Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn. That track is considered to have much the same properties as Churchill and the way the track was riding on the first day of the meeting looked as though it may well work in the favour of John Shirreff’s mare.
There are no secrets about how Mike Smith will ride Zenyatta. It will be off the pace and a late run for the line, just the way that it has worked so well through 13 Grade One victories. And there should be no shortage of early pace from Quality Road, who is drawn in stall one, and Haynesfield.
However, the rails has looked a bad spot this year – as opposed to when it was the golden highway in 2006 – and the race does look as though it could set up for those coming wide into the home stretch.
That brings both Blame and Lookin At Lucky into the equation, but Blame has to prove that he can handle a truly-run 10 furlongs and Lookin At Lucky is likely to be the big danger. He has proven himself to be the best three-year-old this season but that has partly been because so many other colts have fallen by the wayside through injury and he will need more to win this.
Those looking for an outsider might consider Espoir City, the Japanese dirt champion.
Europe goes into the second day hoping to avoid a repeat of the whitewash at Churchill in 1998 and much will rest with Goldikova as she tries for a third successive win in the Mile. Put simply she is the best horse in the race and although her draw, in 10, is not ideal Miesque (ridden by Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head) came from a similarly wide start when she won her second Mile on the course in 1988.
The Turf has been the banker for Europe over the years – 13 winners in the last 20 runnings – and their runners dominate the market. Workforce - who would have been attempting a unique treble of Derby, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Turf – is not a runner because of the fast ground but Debussy, winner of the Arlington Million in August, can continue Europe's fine record.
Big Drama has a good record running fresh so a two-month break may have him set just right for the Sprint while Silver Timber looks the pick for the Turf Sprint after his win in the Grade Three Woodford Stakes.
The Juvenile looks a decent contest but there could be a joker in the pack in Murjan. The Peruvian 2000 Guineas is not the usual route to a race like this but Murjan won that race – one of three he has won – when trained there.
The form may not amount to much but he was receiving 4lbs from colts who were six months older than him, which is a massive amount of development time in a horse of that age, and he could be one at a price.
John Gosden has won the last two renewals of the Juvenile Turf and can make it a hat-trick with Utley. He is a half-brother to Rainbow View and could be the type to adapt to this tight course. Finally, Morning Line might be a little bit of value on what looks a trappy race for the Dirt Mile.
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