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avrilo to defy top weight

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AVRILO TO DEFY TOP WEIGHT:
 
Avrilo has been in excellent form this season, winning three of her seven starts to date, and she looks capable of  adding a fourth victory to her name by defying top weight in Newbury’s Shredding For Bedding Handicap at 9.00pm. Although it’s possible the handicapper may have caught up with her, judged on her run last time out when finishing fourth to Brandywell Boy at Bath, she does have an excuse. That was over a stiff six furlongs, and her best form is clearly over the minimum trip of five. As with her previous attempts at longer distances, she was bang in contention until weakening inside the final furlong, so an improved showing is certainly on the cards. A repeat of her penultimate performance, when proving just over a length too good for Green Velvet at Lingfield, should be good enough to win this.

Colorus was successful in a five furlong Southwell seller back in April, but has been badly out of sorts since, and was always struggling when finishing sixth of eight to Grudge last time out. Easy to oppose on current form.

Lithaam has not shown a great deal in his four starts so far this season, but does have an interesting jockey booking in the shape of Keiron Fallon. However, finished well behind Avrilo last time out and no real reason why he should turn the tables on that opponent here.

Volito did win a handicap at Nottingham last summer, and would have a chance on that run. However, ran a shocker behind Medici Time, when last seen out, and likely to this having been away from the racecourse for almost ten months.

Baby Queen appeared to bounce back to form last time when finishing second to Avrilo at Lingfield. However, was subsequently disqualified for weighing in too light, and therefore difficult to see her reversing the form with that opponent here.

West Leake proved disappointing when trained by Barry Hills, but has certainly ran well enough for his new trainer, winning on two occasions this spring. Stayed on well when finishing third to Captain Coke at Kempton last time out and is certainly one to consider.

Green Velvet has run well to make the frame in three of her four starts this year, finishing strongly behind Avrilo at Lingfield last time. Should be thereabouts again and could prove the main danger to Avrilo.

Miss Firefly is a very consistent sort who has made the frame on all five starts this year. However, she has to be produced right on the line, as she has been known to down tools once hitting the front. Should be thereabouts again though and one to consider.

Peopleton Brook had appeared to have been in good form prior to running poorly last time out, when only sixth behind Hazytoo at Salisbury. Probably needs a bit more respite from the handicapper before winning again.

Figaro Flyer took advantage of a falling handicap mark at Wolverhampton last month, to beat Cavitie by three parts of a length. Completely fluffed the start next time out at Kempton behind Captain Coke, and would have to come into the reckoning if ignoring that run.

Captain Kallis has been running consistently well all year, but looks in the grip of the handicapper at present  Did nothing wrong when third to Thoughtsofstardom last time, and will probably go well again here, without quite managing to win.

Blessed Place likes to make the running and is quite a capable performer on his day. Has been badly out of sorts this season though, and easily opposed on his current form.

Commandingpresence is still a maiden after 30 starts, and nothing in recent performances to suggest she will change that here. Well beaten behind Averoo at Goodwood last time and has very little chance here.

You’relikemefrank is another who is yet to visit the winner’s enclosure, though did put in a decent effort last time out, when third to Mansii at Wolverhampton. Has fallen a further pound in the weights, following that effort, but overall profile suggests he will find a couple too good here.

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